TEAM Bodeen’s E-Newsletter
April 2011
FEATURED STORIES
- Welcome Jeremy Wilford to Team Bodeen
- Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report
- North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
- $99 SRP Energy Audits Available Now
- Virtual Home Staging – Check This out
- Real Estate Cyber Tips
- Current Mortgage Interest Rates
- About Your Mortgage Credit – Important Info
Welcome Jeremy Wilford to Team Bodeen
AKA “The Kid”
I’m excited to share with you about an individual now working alongside me who will greatly enhance my client’s real estate experience, and I trust will bring some sanity into my own life as well. If indeed that was possible.
Meet Jeremy Wilford, AKA “The Kid.” He’s an Arizona native, husband of Jennifer, graduate of ASU, and the son of two of my closest friends on this earth Greg and Terri Wilford. Jeremy has relocated back to AZ following a 5 year hitch in California where he and Jennifer got married, enjoyed the Southern California lifestyle and where Jeremy started his real estate career.
Jeremy is an Arizona resident, artist, musician, and now, Realtor. Born and raised in Scottsdale, Arizona, Jeremy’s formative years were spent avoiding cacti, UV Rays and plotting his escape from Arizona. After graduation from Arizona State University, Jeremy began his adventure. A journey around the world as a musician landed him in Los Angeles by way of Liverpool, England in 2004. He lived, worked, and created in Southern California for the next 5 years.
Now, at the ripe age of 32, Jeremy finds himself back where he started – having come full circle returning to Scottsdale. It was his time away from the Valley of the Sun that helped Jeremy recognize and appreciate the sheer beauty and unique appeal that has drawn so many from so far away to this desert oasis.
Already in less than two months Jeremy has made a number of sales. He enjoys working with buyers, even in our insane investor driven market. He also loves open houses and meeting new folks at the opens. He’s bringing me (kicking and screaming) into the 21st century of social media marketing too. He’s almost 100% paperless utilizing an Apple I-Pad. What I also appreciate about my new associate is his humility which translates into a very teachable spirit.
I appreciate him and I know our clients will also.
PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT
Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
Excerpted from STAT
COMMENTARY
Market Weaknesses Linger, But a Lot of Good News to Report
(For Graphs, Charts, and Summaries scroll down to the end of the newsletter)
April’s STAT brings with it good and not-so-good news. In the plus column are the five year sales high of 9,933, the lowest total inventory in the last twelve months of 37,632, an MSI below four months for the first time in twelve months and a 22.8% reduction in foreclosures pending from a year ago. All welcome news! On the not-so-good front is the median and average pricing picture for both new list and sales prices, which continue on a disappointing downward trend. The pricing metrics are influenced by distressed properties’ (both lender owned and short sales) disproportionate percentage of total sales. And as the PPI predicts, this is not going to right itself any time soon.
The pattern of good news mixed with not-so-good is all too familiar as the Valley marches through its long recovery. The real estate market cannot correct itself in a vacuum. It is dependent on jobs and net migration into the state which must precede its return to better days. Like the seasonal rebirth that occurs in nature each spring, there are positive signs emerging that support the real estate recovery. With the release in March of Arizona’s and the Valley’s census data, we now have a much clearer picture of net migration and how it has affected the real estate market. The Phoenix Metropolitan area (Maricopa and Pinal Counties) which grew 28.9% from 2000 to 2010, grew only .017% from 2008 to 2009 and 2009 to 2010.2 From August 2009 through July 2010, net migration into the Valley was negative, ranging from a loss of 1,000 in May of 2010 to a high of 25,500 in August of 2009, or an average monthly loss of 13,958. Starting in August of 2010 the loss pattern reversed and the Valley saw positive, albeit small gains, averaging 2,769 per month.
Unemployment figures which had been under reported until the census data was released in March, now show that the unemployment rates for January and February in the Valley were 9.29 and 9.28 respectively. Yet, in February Phoenix metro saw a month over month increase of 16,700 non-farm jobs in the government and private sectors.
More promising are recent announcements which indicate that jobs are coming and soon. Jobs will entice positive net migration, put many back to work and will fuel the Valley’s real estate recovery. On March 29th Mayor Gordon announced that Phoenix will become the home to the world’s largest health care data center, Institute for Advanced Health, expected to attract thousands of biomedical jobs to the Valley.5 Yulex will be expanding its rubber production capabilities with a new facility in Chandler which will create 100 full time jobs and 500 part time, and grow to 300 full time in five years.6 First Solar’s new plant on the General Motors Proving Grounds site, is expected to bring 600 new jobs and potentially hundreds more if it entices its products’ supply chain to relocate here. It expects to start construction in Q2 and be completed by 2012. Gestamp Renewables plans to build a steel facility in Surprise which will employ 50 in the first phase, bring in 100 construction jobs and eventually employ 300 at the factory.7 What is clear is the Valley’s recovery has started and the factors that will insure its continuance seem full of promise.
SALES Month over Month
The good news for March is its sales figure of 9,933, which is the highest monthly sales total in the previous sixty-six months. March figure is also the 5th highest sales record since 2001. This represents a 38.8% gain over February total sales and completes the upward pattern for the quarter, typical of every Q1 since ARMLS began keeping records in 2001. While the month over month gains since January are not unusual, March’s claim to the highest sales figure in five years is. Clearly Buyers are taking advantage of the phenomenal affordability of Valley housing.
SALES Year over Year
March’s 9,933 represents a 10.7% year over year gain, complementing the March over February gains of 2008 to 2009 (77.9%) and 2009 to 2010 (17.5%). Higher sales totals help deplete the market’s over supply of homes, inching it towards a more balanced supply.
NEW INVENTORY
New Listings added to the market increased 16.7% over February (+1,765) to 12,312. This represents only 1% increase over the previous 12 month new listing average of 12,152.
TOTAL INVENTORY
Total inventory which remained relatively flat in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2010, began a down-ward trend in late Q4 which continued into March. March inventory declined 7.5% from February to a total of 37,632 units. This figure is the lowest total inventory in the last twenty three months. This type of decline in total inventory chips away at the Valley’s oversupply which must be reduced in any plausible recovery scenario.
MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)
More good news comes with the decline in the MSI to 3.79 months, representing a significant 33% drop and the lowest MSI in the past 12 months. MSI under 4 months is categorized as a Seller’s market, and this is the first time this has occurred in the last twelve months. The MSI metric when calculated for the entire market is merely a barometer of overall market health. It is not relevant to small market niches which have their own sup-ply and demand and thus their own MSI. Lower MSI is a price driver, which is sorely needed in the Valley’s recovery. An MSI under four months for a single month will not have huge impact, but if this is the start of a trend rather than a blip, we might expect some positive pricing pressure later in the year.
NEW LIST PRICES
Median and average new list prices have been on parallel declining trends over the last twenty-four months. Median new list price declined 3.2% in March to $120,000 and the average new list price declined 1.1% from February to $201,100. While the net losses from February are not steep, the drops from the all time highs of the past decade are far more painful. Median new list price fell in March to $120,000 from the decade high in February 2006 of $303,900, a 61% decline in value. Similarly, the average new list price of $201,100 in March fell from a decade high of $421,950 in January 2007, a 52% decline in value.
SALES PRICES
Sales prices follow a similar long term downward trending path forged by new list prices. In March median sales prices remained steady hovering around $110,000, hardly deviating from the downward trajectory established over the previous twelve months. Average sales prices increased slightly (1.4%) from February, settling at almost the same level as January at $157,800. The overall decline in just the last twelve months from a high median of $130,000 in May 2010 and a high average of $179,900 in June of 2010 is not very good news. Pricing is in the doldrums, and while a trailing indicator, still remains the bane of the Valley’s recovery.
THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™
The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS. It forecasts the aver-age and median sales prices ninety days into the future based on the pending sales in the MLS system. Its accuracy diminishes the further into the future it goes, as new pendings are constantly added to the system. Last month the PPI predicted $160,000 as March’s average sales price, and the actual was $157,800, only 1.25% off the mark. The median sales price predictor last month was $114,000 and the actual came in at $110,000, 3.5% lower. Declines in the median and average prices reflect larger numbers of lower end closed properties which exert negative pressure on pricing.
PPI predictions for the next ninety days indicate the median will rise to $113,000 in April, drop $10,000 to $103,000 in May and rise $6,000 to $109,000 in June. The average sales price predictions follow a similar up-down-up pattern. PPI predicts the average sales price to rise to $163,000 in April, drop $13,000 to $150,000 in May and then rise slightly to $152,000 in June. While the declines in pricing signal good news for Buyers who want to take advantage of the lowest pricing of the decade, they are unwelcome news for Sellers who endure the ill effects on their equity wrought by a market oversupply unduly influenced by distressed properties.
To View this entire report in a PDF click on the link below or cut and paste into yourbrowser.
http://www.armls.com/Libraries/STAT_and_PPI_2011/STAT-Apr-2011.sflb.ashx
March Pending Foreclosures decrease again
Foreclosures pending continue on the downward trend established over the last twelve months, which in April 2010 was 47,836 and in March was 37,037, 22.58% lower than a year ago. Lender owned sales are at the root of declining prices, so declines in the foreclosures pending which feed the lender owned sales is good news. Recovery is going to be a slow and painful process and eliminating the disproportionate influence of foreclosures is a must.
NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT
By Zip Code
85254:
Active Listings in the 85254 community dropped from 283 on March 1st to 263 this month.
This dropped from 390 one year ago.
Pending Listings have increased from 93 a year ago to 106 this month.
Sales increased from 62 to 74 from February to March. Stayed the same compared to one year ago.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 53% of the market.
Average Sales Price March 2011: $262,500
Average Sales Price March 2010: $290,000
85255:
Active Listings in the 85255 community dropped from 717 on March 1st to 705 this month.
This dropped from 778 one year ago.
Pending Listings have decreased from 123 a year ago to 101 this month.
Sales decreased from 94 to 82 from February to March.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 39% of the market.
Average Sales Price March 2011: $500,000
Average Sales Price March 2010: $467,000
85258:
Active Listings in the 85258 community dropped from 210 on March 1st to 198 this month.
This dropped from 252 one year ago.
Pending Listings have increased from 41 a month ago to 42 this month.
Sales increased from 22 to 29 compared with a year ago.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 38% of the market.
Average Sales Price March 2011: $518,000
Average Sales Price March 2010: $408,000
85259:
Active Listings in the 85259 community rose slightly from 273 on March 1st to 278 this month.
This dropped from 328 one year ago.
Pending Listings have increased from 52 a month ago to 53 this month.
Sales increased from 38 to 40 from February to March.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 35% of the market.
Average Sales Price March 2011: $596,000
Average Sales Price March 2010: $560,000
85260:
Active Listings in the 85260 community increased from 273 on March 1st to 278 this month.
This dropped from 328 one year ago.
Pending Listings have increased from 52 a year ago to 53 this month.
Sales increased from 28 to 40 from February to March.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 64% of the market.
Average Sales Price March 2011: $305,000
Average Sales Price March 2010: $370,000
85262:
Active Listings in the 85262 community dropped from 526 on March 1st to 514 this month.
This dropped from 625 one year ago.
Pending Listings have increased from 65 a month ago to 75 this month.
Sales increased from 50 to 61 from February to March.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 51% of the market.
Average Sales Price March 2011: $675,000
Average Sales Price March 2010: $427,000
85266:
Active Listings in the 85266 community dropped from 241 on March 1st to 238 this month.
This was the same as one year ago.
Pending Listings have increased/decreased from 49 a year ago to 39 this month.
Sales increased from 28 to 38 from February to March.
Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 34% of the market.
Average Sales Price March 2011: $540,000
Average Sales Price March 2010: $540,000
Real Estate Cyber Tricks
Make Your Photos Look Great. http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011
Here’s the choice. If you are a graphics professional you can go out and spend lots of bucks for image editing tools. On the other hand if your livelihood doesn’t depend on top of the line software and you just want to occasionally crop, edit and touch up a photo and other graphics, then these folks can help.
This “cloud based” program will do all of the usual editing you’ll need. You can create a new image, open and edit an image from your computer or the web and create an image library – all without having to install any software.
And the nice part is – it’s on the house. For this and other great tricks and tips go to:
SRP unveils Home Performance with ENERGY STAR® program
For only $99, customers can find ways to give their home a tune-up
SRP launched the new Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program this week, a whole-house approach to energy efficiency that identifies specific actions customers can take to reduce household energy costs.
For the discounted price of $99, SRP’s comprehensive assessment uncovers barriers to a home’s energy efficiency. This two- to three-hour assessment, which typically costs about $500, will be conducted by an SRP-approved Home Performance contractor. The assessment includes:
- Blower door test and pressure diagnostics
- Duct testing
- Combustion safety testing
- HVAC assessment
- Insulation inspection
- Window inspection
- Lighting, appliance and hot-water inspection
“Most people aren’t aware that air leaks represent a sizeable portion of home air-conditioning and heating costs,” said Debbie Kimberly, SRP’s manager of Energy Efficiency & Policy Analysis. “Our new home assessment examines those issues, checks for proper installation of insulation and many other factors that can make homes quieter and more comfortable.”
Within 10 business days of the assessment, contractors will provide a report that highlights all the energy-saving opportunities and lets the customer decide which, if any, improvements to make. SRP also can help customers arrange and pay for enhancements through rebates for shade screens, duct repairs, insulation, air sealing and new high-efficiency air-conditioning systems. Through Dec. 31, 2010, some measures may even qualify for federal tax credits.
Participants who learn how to improve energy efficiency in the home also will receive an energy-efficiency kit with 10 compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs), a low-flow showerhead and three low-flow faucet aerators that will be installed during the assessment, if feasible.
The SRP Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program is open to current SRP residential electric customers who own an existing single-family home; new construction is ineligible. The assessment must be performed on or before April 30, 2011.
To learn more about this program, visit www.savewithsrp.com or call (602) 889-2656.
I am writing to recommend a home energy audit service provided by the AZ Solar Wave & Energy Company. This company is owned by my nephew, Chris Owens, who has been in the construction and solar energy business for the past twelve years. Chris has a wonderful reputation in the industry, one of integrity and dependability. I have attached a flyer that gives a quick summary and their contact info. SRP and APS have started this program and are subsidizing the cost of the audit so the home owner pays just $99 to have them come out and perform the audit. They are BPI certified (Building Performance Institute) and approved by APS and SRP.
Robb and Stucky to Close its Doors
Upscale furniture retailer Robb & Stucky, a top player in the Valley’s interior design arena for 20 years, will liquidate its inventory and close, according to a plan approved Tuesday by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Tampa, Fla.
Valley Mortgage Rates Improve
Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 4/25/2011)
30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% (5.75% Jumbo)
5/1 Arm: 3.75% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)
4.0% Jumbo Financing (7/1 Arm – with 25% Down)
15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.00%
Important Consumer Mortgage Information
The Facts Your Credit Score – A Must Read
http://www.aaronline.com/AZR/2010/June/the-facts-about-credit-scores.aspx
Buying a Home After Foreclosure
http://www.aaronline.com/AZR/2010/August/buying-a-home-after-a-foreclosure.aspx
Fannie Mae “Know Your Options” Website up and Running
http://www.knowyouroptions.com/
Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?
Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage. Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.
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