April 2011 eNewsletter

TEAM Bodeen’s E-Newsletter

April 2011

FEATURED STORIES

  • Welcome Jeremy Wilford to Team Bodeen
  • Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
  • $99 SRP Energy Audits Available Now
  • Virtual Home Staging – Check This out
  • Real Estate Cyber Tips
  • Current Mortgage Interest Rates
  • About Your Mortgage Credit – Important Info

Welcome Jeremy Wilford to Team Bodeen

AKA “The Kid”

I’m excited to share with you about an individual now working alongside me who will greatly enhance my client’s real estate experience, and I trust will bring some sanity into my own life as well. If indeed that was possible.

Meet Jeremy Wilford, AKA “The Kid.” He’s an Arizona native, husband of Jennifer, graduate of ASU, and the son of two of my closest friends on this earth Greg and Terri Wilford. Jeremy has relocated back to AZ following a 5 year hitch in California where he and Jennifer got married, enjoyed the Southern California lifestyle and where Jeremy started his real estate career.

Jeremy is an Arizona resident, artist, musician, and now, Realtor. Born and raised in Scottsdale, Arizona, Jeremy’s formative years were spent avoiding cacti, UV Rays and plotting his escape from Arizona.  After graduation from Arizona State University, Jeremy began his adventure. A journey around the world as a musician landed him in Los Angeles by way of Liverpool, England in 2004. He lived, worked, and created in Southern California for the next 5 years.

Now, at the ripe age of 32, Jeremy finds himself back where he started – having come full circle returning to Scottsdale.  It was his time away from the Valley of the Sun that helped Jeremy recognize and appreciate the sheer beauty and unique appeal that has drawn so many from so far away to this desert oasis.

Already in less than two months Jeremy has made a number of sales. He enjoys working with buyers, even in our insane investor driven market. He also loves open houses and meeting new folks at the opens. He’s bringing me (kicking and screaming) into the 21st century of social media marketing too. He’s almost 100% paperless utilizing an Apple I-Pad. What I also appreciate about my new associate is his humility which translates into a very teachable spirit.

 

I appreciate him and I know our clients will also.

 

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT

Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

Excerpted from STAT

COMMENTARY

Market Weaknesses Linger, But a Lot of Good News to Report

(For Graphs, Charts, and Summaries scroll down to the end of the newsletter)

 

April’s STAT brings with it good and not-so-good news. In the plus column are the five year sales high of 9,933, the lowest total inventory in the last twelve months of 37,632, an MSI below four months for the first time in twelve months and a 22.8% reduction in foreclosures pending from a year ago. All welcome news! On the not-so-good front is the median and average pricing picture for both new list and sales prices, which continue on a disappointing downward trend. The pricing metrics are influenced by distressed properties’ (both lender owned and short sales) disproportionate percentage of total sales. And as the PPI predicts, this is not going to right itself any time soon.

The pattern of good news mixed with not-so-good is all too familiar as the Valley marches through its long recovery. The real estate market cannot correct itself in a vacuum. It is dependent on jobs and net migration into the state which must precede its return to better days. Like the seasonal rebirth that occurs in nature each spring, there are positive signs emerging that support the real estate recovery. With the release in March of Arizona’s and the Valley’s census data, we now have a much clearer picture of net migration and how it has affected the real estate market. The Phoenix Metropolitan area (Maricopa and Pinal Counties) which grew 28.9% from 2000 to 2010, grew only .017% from 2008 to 2009 and 2009 to 2010.2 From August 2009 through July 2010, net migration into the Valley was negative, ranging from a loss of 1,000 in May of 2010 to a high of 25,500 in August of 2009, or an average monthly loss of 13,958. Starting in August of 2010 the loss pattern reversed and the Valley saw positive, albeit small gains, averaging 2,769 per month.

Unemployment figures which had been under reported until the census data was released in March, now show that the unemployment rates for January and February in the Valley were 9.29 and 9.28 respectively. Yet, in February Phoenix metro saw a month over month increase of 16,700 non-farm jobs in the government and private sectors.

More promising are recent announcements which indicate that jobs are coming and soon. Jobs will entice positive net migration, put many back to work and will fuel the Valley’s real estate recovery. On March 29th Mayor Gordon announced that Phoenix will become the home to the world’s largest health care data center, Institute for Advanced Health, expected to attract thousands of biomedical jobs to the Valley.5 Yulex will be expanding its rubber production capabilities with a new facility in Chandler which will create 100 full time jobs and 500 part time, and grow to 300 full time in five years.6 First Solar’s new plant on the General Motors Proving Grounds site, is expected to bring 600 new jobs and potentially hundreds more if it entices its products’ supply chain to relocate here. It expects to start construction in       Q2 and be completed by 2012. Gestamp Renewables plans to build a steel facility in Surprise which will employ 50 in the first phase, bring in 100 construction jobs and eventually employ 300 at the factory.7 What is clear is the Valley’s recovery has started and the factors that will insure its continuance seem full of promise.

SALES Month over Month

The good news for March is its sales figure of 9,933, which is the highest monthly sales total in the previous sixty-six months. March figure is also the 5th highest sales record since 2001. This represents a 38.8% gain over February total sales and completes the upward pattern for the quarter, typical of every Q1 since ARMLS began keeping records in 2001. While the month over month gains since January are not unusual, March’s claim to the highest sales figure in five years is. Clearly Buyers are taking advantage of the phenomenal affordability of Valley housing.

SALES Year over Year

March’s 9,933 represents a 10.7% year over year gain, complementing the March over February gains of 2008 to 2009 (77.9%) and 2009 to 2010 (17.5%). Higher sales totals help deplete the market’s over supply of homes, inching it towards a more balanced supply.

NEW INVENTORY

New Listings added to the market increased 16.7% over February (+1,765) to 12,312. This represents only 1% increase over the previous 12 month new listing average of 12,152.

TOTAL INVENTORY

Total inventory which remained relatively flat in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2010, began a down-ward trend in late Q4 which continued into March. March inventory declined 7.5% from February to a total of 37,632 units. This figure is the lowest total inventory in the last twenty three months. This type of decline in total inventory chips away at the Valley’s oversupply which must be reduced in any plausible recovery scenario.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)

More good news comes with the decline in the MSI to 3.79 months, representing a significant 33% drop and the lowest MSI in the past 12 months. MSI under 4 months is categorized as a Seller’s market, and this is the first time this has occurred in the last twelve months. The MSI metric when calculated for the entire market is merely a barometer of overall market health. It is not relevant to small market niches which have their own sup-ply and demand and thus their own MSI. Lower MSI is a price driver, which is sorely needed in the Valley’s recovery. An MSI under four months for a single month will not have huge impact, but if this is the start of a trend rather than a blip, we might expect some positive pricing pressure later in the year.

NEW LIST PRICES

Median and average new list prices have been on parallel declining trends over the last twenty-four months. Median new list price declined 3.2% in March to $120,000 and the average new list price declined 1.1% from February to $201,100. While the net losses from February are not steep, the drops from the all time highs of the past decade are far more painful. Median new list price fell in March to $120,000 from the decade high in February 2006 of $303,900, a 61% decline in value. Similarly, the average new list price of $201,100 in March fell from a decade high of $421,950 in January 2007, a 52% decline in value.

SALES PRICES

Sales prices follow a similar long term downward trending path forged by new list prices. In March median sales prices remained steady hovering around $110,000, hardly deviating from the downward trajectory established over the previous twelve months. Average sales prices increased slightly (1.4%) from February, settling at almost the same level as January at $157,800. The overall decline in just the last twelve months from a high median of $130,000 in May 2010 and a high average of $179,900 in June of 2010 is not very good news. Pricing is in the doldrums, and while a trailing indicator, still remains the bane of the Valley’s recovery.

THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™

The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS. It forecasts the aver-age and median sales prices ninety days into the future based on the pending sales in the MLS system. Its accuracy diminishes the further into the future it goes, as new pendings are constantly added to the system. Last month the PPI predicted $160,000 as March’s average sales price, and the actual was $157,800, only 1.25% off the mark. The median sales price predictor last month was $114,000 and the actual came in at $110,000, 3.5% lower. Declines in the median and average prices reflect larger numbers of lower end closed properties which exert negative pressure on pricing.

PPI predictions for the next ninety days indicate the median will rise to $113,000 in April, drop $10,000 to $103,000 in May and rise $6,000 to $109,000 in June. The average sales price predictions follow a similar up-down-up pattern. PPI predicts the average sales price to rise to $163,000 in April, drop $13,000 to $150,000 in May and then rise slightly to $152,000 in June. While the declines in pricing signal good news for Buyers who want to take advantage of the lowest pricing of the decade, they are unwelcome news for Sellers who endure the ill effects on their equity wrought by a market oversupply unduly influenced by distressed properties.

To View this entire report in a PDF click on the link below or cut and paste into yourbrowser.

http://www.armls.com/Libraries/STAT_and_PPI_2011/STAT-Apr-2011.sflb.ashx

March Pending Foreclosures decrease again

Foreclosures pending continue on the downward trend established over the last twelve months, which in April 2010 was 47,836 and in March was 37,037, 22.58% lower than a year ago. Lender owned sales are at the root of declining prices, so declines in the foreclosures pending which feed the lender owned sales is good news. Recovery is going to be a slow and painful process and eliminating the disproportionate influence of foreclosures is a must.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT

By Zip Code

85254:

Active Listings in the 85254 community dropped from 283 on March 1st to 263 this month.

This dropped from 390 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 93 a year ago to 106 this month.

Sales increased from 62 to 74 from February to March. Stayed the same compared to one year ago.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 53% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $262,500

Average Sales Price March 2010: $290,000

 

85255:

Active Listings in the 85255 community dropped from 717 on March 1st to 705 this month.

This dropped from 778 one year ago.

Pending Listings have decreased from 123 a year ago to 101 this month.

Sales decreased from 94 to 82 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 39% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $500,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $467,000

 

85258:

Active Listings in the 85258 community dropped from 210 on March 1st to 198 this month.

This dropped from 252 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 41 a month ago to 42 this month.

Sales increased from 22 to 29 compared with a year ago.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 38% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $518,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $408,000

 

85259:

Active Listings in the 85259 community rose slightly from 273 on March 1st to 278 this month.

This dropped from 328 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 52 a month ago to 53 this month.

Sales increased from 38 to 40 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 35% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $596,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $560,000

 

85260:

Active Listings in the 85260 community increased from 273 on March 1st to 278 this month.

This dropped from 328 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 52 a year ago to 53 this month.

Sales increased from 28 to 40 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 64% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $305,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $370,000

 

85262:

Active Listings in the 85262 community dropped from 526 on March 1st to 514 this month.

This dropped from 625 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 65 a month ago to 75 this month.

Sales increased from 50 to 61 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 51% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $675,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $427,000

 

85266:

Active Listings in the 85266 community dropped from 241 on March 1st to 238 this month.

This was the same as one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased/decreased from 49 a year ago to 39 this month.

Sales increased from 28 to 38 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 34% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $540,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $540,000

 

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

Make Your Photos Look Great. http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Here’s the choice. If you are a graphics professional you can go out and spend lots of bucks for image editing tools. On the other hand if your livelihood doesn’t depend on top of the line software and you just want to occasionally crop, edit and touch up a photo and other graphics, then these folks can help.

This “cloud based” program will do all of the usual editing you’ll need. You can create a new image, open and edit an image from your computer or the web and create an image library – all without having to install any software.

And the nice part is – it’s on the house. For this and other great tricks and tips go to:

SRP unveils Home Performance with ENERGY STAR® program

For only $99, customers can find ways to give their home a tune-up

SRP launched the new Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program this week, a whole-house approach to energy efficiency that identifies specific actions customers can take to reduce household energy costs.

For the discounted price of $99, SRP’s comprehensive assessment uncovers barriers to a home’s energy efficiency. This two- to three-hour assessment, which typically costs about $500, will be conducted by an SRP-approved Home Performance contractor. The assessment includes:

  • Blower door test and pressure diagnostics
  • Duct testing
  • Combustion safety testing
  • HVAC assessment
  • Insulation inspection
  • Window inspection
  • Lighting, appliance and hot-water inspection

“Most people aren’t aware that air leaks represent a sizeable portion of home air-conditioning and heating costs,” said Debbie Kimberly, SRP’s manager of Energy Efficiency & Policy Analysis. “Our new home assessment examines those issues, checks for proper installation of insulation and many other factors that can make homes quieter and more comfortable.”

Within 10 business days of the assessment, contractors will provide a report that highlights all the energy-saving opportunities and lets the customer decide which, if any, improvements to make. SRP also can help customers arrange and pay for enhancements through rebates for shade screens, duct repairs, insulation, air sealing and new high-efficiency air-conditioning systems. Through Dec. 31, 2010, some measures may even qualify for federal tax credits.

Participants who learn how to improve energy efficiency in the home also will receive an energy-efficiency kit with 10 compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs), a low-flow showerhead and three low-flow faucet aerators that will be installed during the assessment, if feasible.

The SRP Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program is open to current SRP residential electric customers who own an existing single-family home; new construction is ineligible. The assessment must be performed on or before April 30, 2011.

To learn more about this program, visit www.savewithsrp.com or call (602) 889-2656.

I am writing to recommend a home energy audit service provided by the AZ Solar Wave & Energy Company.  This company is owned by my nephew, Chris Owens, who has been in the construction and solar energy business for the past twelve years.  Chris has a wonderful reputation in the industry, one of integrity and dependability. I have attached a flyer that gives a quick summary and their contact info. SRP and APS have started this program and are subsidizing the cost of the audit so the home owner pays just $99 to have them come out and perform the audit. They are BPI certified (Building Performance Institute) and approved by APS and SRP.

Robb and Stucky to Close its Doors

Upscale furniture retailer Robb & Stucky, a top player in the Valley’s interior design arena for 20 years, will liquidate its inventory and close, according to a plan approved Tuesday by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Tampa, Fla.

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/03/08/20110308arizona-robb-stucky-close-liquidate.html#ixzz1KrWDDbmA

Valley Mortgage Rates Improve

Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 4/25/2011)

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% (5.75% Jumbo)

5/1 Arm: 3.75% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)

4.0% Jumbo Financing (7/1 Arm – with 25% Down)

15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.00%

Important Consumer Mortgage Information

The Facts Your Credit Score – A Must Read

http://www.aaronline.com/AZR/2010/June/the-facts-about-credit-scores.aspx

 

Buying a Home After Foreclosure

http://www.aaronline.com/AZR/2010/August/buying-a-home-after-a-foreclosure.aspx

 

Fannie Mae “Know Your Options” Website up and Running

http://www.knowyouroptions.com/

 

Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage. Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs,

January 2011 eNewsletter

FEATURED STORIES

  • Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International
  • Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report (PDF)
  • ARMLS Pending Price Index
  • Valley Pending Foreclosure Numbers
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
  • Experience Scottsdale Events Coming Up
  • 10 tips to Staging Your House for Sale
  • Real Estate Cyber Tips (Link)
  • Current Mortgage Interest Rates
  • About Your Mortgage Credit – Important Info

Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International

As most of you know, I’ve been with Realty Executives for a long time, as in 13 years. It’s been a great company to be associated with and I’ve made many friends within the company.

Realty Executives has been one of the top producing companies in the country and is ranked #11 for closed sales nationally. And just last month I received a letter from the new President of the company congratulating me as being one of the top 250 agents in Realty Executives – out of 1300.

So Mike, why change? Why change now?

Obviously, I can’t go into depth about all my reasons in this newsletter, but suffice to say it is a good time for a change which I’ve been sensing for awhile. HomeSmart is on the cutting edge electronically, and with great efficiency. It’s a paperless company which means that all paperwork must be digitized before I turn it in and all paperwork I receive is in an electronic format. All my listings and transactions are online. We understand the need to be relevant technologically, while being able to provide full property exposure. And by the way, HomeSmart is the 19th top producing firm by sales sides in the country and 26th in the country by dollar volume.

The owner of the company, Matt Widdows, is a relatively young man with a strong vision for the company and our industry. The broker Trudy Moore used to be the broker for Realty Executives. She is sharp, personable and well respected. It has potentially one of the most dynamic networking firms in the valley with almost 4000 agents – three times the amount we have at Realty Execs.

In my research, I sought out professionals from within the company and without. I also spoke with others in related fields including the mortgage and title industries. There has not been one negative word that I’ve heard about HomeSmart to date.

So effective this past December 15th, I relocated down the hall from where I’m at now at the Desert Ridge Corporate Center, though it’s Suite 140 instead. I will also make use of our Scottsdale office located at the NE corner of Shea and Hayden. We have 9 offices valley wide and I have 24/7 access to each one. If you’re thinking about stopping by to say “hi” just give a call ahead of time.

My contact #’s remain the same. 602-689-3100 is my mobile. Mike@MikeBodeen.com or Mike@NorthScottsdale.com is my e-mail.

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT
Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
Excerpted from STAT

The following online report is the new STAT format that we began using last month and which I’ll be using for future E-Newsletters. These stats, along with the data of the Cromford reports are well done and accurately report the most current numbers we have for Valley home sales. Remember, these stats are macro in nature but they can show us market trends.

SALES Month over Month

Monthly Sales in December were 8,401, a 23.8% increase over November’s 6,786. This complements an upward sales trend for the whole fourth quarter. The highest sales for 2010 of 9,280 occurred in June.

This month over month gain coupled with the fourth quarter trend demonstrates a metric clearly moving in the right direction, after a pattern for 2010 characterized by a “one step forward and two steps back” phenomenon. The December Sales figure ends the year as a 45.12% increase compared to the January figure (5,789) at the start of the year.

SALES Year over Year

December’s 8,401 Sales total represents a 9.7% increase over 2009′s December Sales figure of 7,657. In addition, it is the second largest November to December monthly gain (23.8%) of the decade, just below the November to December gain (24.98%) in 2008. ARMLS

Sales Year Over Year

NEW INVENTORY

December New Inventory (9,443) declined 13.9% or 1,526 listings from November’s 10,969. This month’s New Inventory figure follows a steady decline started in September. This is in line with a pattern of November to December declines in New Inventory experienced every December since 2001. New Inventory added to the market in 2010 was 148,968, 1.17% increase over the same figure for 2009, but well below the figures for 2006, 2007 and 2008 (173,363, 165,615, and 162,181 respectively). New Inventory added to the Total Inventory each month is an important factor in the supply and demand balance, as greater supplies support a Buyer’s market and exert downward pressure on pricing.

Total Inventory

TOTAL INVENTORY

Total Inventory declined 2,890 listings in December to 42,463, a 6.37% decline from November. Total inventory remained flat during 2010 with an average of 43,088 per month.

Sales Price

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)

MSI for December declined to 5.05, representing the first drop below 6 months since June, and a positive step toward a balanced market. A Seller’s market is typically defined as a months supply of inventory in the 4-5 month range, while a Buyer’s market is described as a 6 month or greater supply. While MSI is a barometer of overall market health, it may not represent an accurate picture of inventory supply in specific market niches. The December decline from 6.68 to 5.05 months is a drop of 1.63 months or 24.4%. While this is a very positive metric, a quick glance at the historic new listing and sold data shows that new listings rise significantly from December to January each year, and sales significantly fall from December to January each year. Thus next month’s inventory rise coupled with fewer sales, could cause the MSI to rise again.

Sales Price

NEW LIST PRICES

Both the median and average List Prices added to the market continued downward in December. Median List Price dropped 3.2% to $118,000 from November’s $121,900. Likewise the average List Price declined 7.5% to $191,000 from November’s $206,400.

Sales Price

SALES PRICES

December’s Median Sales Price was $110,200, a 4.2% decline from November, and a 12.9% decline from December 2009. The median value represents the midpoint in a market where there are as many sales above that value as below. Great housing affordability in the Valley was fueled by the declining median price trend line in 2010. The average Sales Price for December rose $1,400 to $160,400, a .9% gain over November, but 9.7% decrease from December 2009. ARMLS

Sales Price

THE PENDING PRICE INDEX™

The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS which forecasts Median and Average Sales Prices for the coming three months based on the pending sales data in MLS.

The PPI’s predictive accuracy naturally declines the further into the future it goes, as the number of transactions in the forecast lessens. The actual Median Sales Price for December was $110,200, which was 4.17% below the December figure predicted in November. The Average Sales Price for December was $160,400, or 1.47% below the December Average predicted in November. While the actual numbers may deviate from predicted values, the forecast value for the direction of market pricing remains true.

The three month prediction for Median Sales Price for January, February and March are $115,000, $112,000 and $110,000 respectively, indicating continuing downward pricing pressures well into the first quarter. Likewise, Average Sales Price predictions follow a similar downward forecast for January, February and March of $159,400, $158,200, and $145,800 respectively.

Downward pricing pressure in the Valley is influenced by the large, steady supply of homes (42,463) and the disproportionate percentage (69.6%) of Distressed Sales relative to the Total Sales.

Price Index

Click here to view this entire report in a PDF

DECEMBER PENDING FORECLOSURES UNCHANGED

The Valley’s Pending foreclosure market remained virtually the same as last month. The number of Pending foreclosures (41,057) decreased 19% compared to December 2009 (50444). This statistic is one of the more important keys to understand when the reversal of our market begins to take shape.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT

Whereas much of the Valley sales market remains stuck in miry clay, North Scottsdale showed a much more upbeat turn in its market conditions from its December numbers.

North Scottsdale’s home sales rose 13% in December compared to a year earlier. It took 5 less days to sell a North Scottsdale home compared to one year ago (161 vs 166 days).

Good news also is the drop in inventory across the board. Only 85266 zip code didn’t lose inventory, but remained the same. North Scottsdale now stands at a Monthly Absorption Rate of 6.5, down from 10. That is a HUGE and welcome drop. I expect that will move up with February’s reporting as it historically does.

North Scottsdale’s median price dropped to $400,000 compared with $460,000 for December of 2009, but the median price per square foot (PPS) dropped only 3%. The PPS is a more accurate way of determining appreciation.

All zip codes in North Scottsdale increased median value, except 85259 (-8%), and 85266 (-6%). See Table Summary below.

Sales increased from 301 a year earlier to 340 this December, which is a 13% gain.

Considering everything, I’ll take this upbeat North Scottsdale report in a heart beat.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(Listings compare this month with last month
and Sales compare December 2010 vs. December 2009)

Current Listings:
Sales:
Ave. Sales Price:
85254
323 (-9%)
77 (+30%)
$310,000 (+10%)
85255
683 (-6%)
86 (+32%)
$546,000 (-01%)
85258
215 (-1%)
22 (-8%)
$361,000 (+03%)
85259
292 (-5%)
35 (-17%)
$595,000 (+29%)
85260
221 (-8%)
44 (+19%)
$289,000 (-06%)
85262
533 (NC)
44 (-14%)
$550,000 (-04%)
85266
240 (-10%)
33 (+22%)
$550,000 (+21%)

Bored? In Scottsdale? In Winter? Check your pulse then these upcoming events…

In Scottsdale, January rings in more than an exciting New Year – it also ushers in a special event season that’s chock-full of art festivals, professional sports competitions, collector car auctions and more. Highlights of the coming season include the Scottsdale Celebration of Fine Art(Jan. 15 – March 27), Barrett-Jackson Collector Car Auction (Jan. 17-23), Waste Management Phoenix Open (Jan.31 – Feb. 6), and Cactus League Spring Training (Feb. 25 – March 26), starring the 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium and the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks in their new headquarters at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. For a Full lineup of events Control + Click the link below

Upcoming Scottsdale Winter Events – Control + Click here

10 Tips to Staging Your House for Sale

Want to sell your home? Get out the bucket, mop and Mr. Clean. The key to making a positive first impression is simple, said Sandra Rinomato, host of HGTV’s popular “Property Virgins” show.

“Get it clean, clean, clean,” said Rinomato. “If your house isn’t clean, it instantly sends up negative thoughts that the home is not well maintained. If your house is spotless, you’re ahead of the game,” she said.

But don’t stop there, advised Rinomato. To increase your chances of making a sale, “stage” the house to make it as attractive as possible. Until recently, “Staging meant pulling out all the stops-setting the dining table with your best china and crystal, arranging flowers, lighting candles,” she said. “Now we take the minimalist approach. Basically, you want to strip the house to its bare essentials, depersonalize it so potential buyers can superimpose themselves and their lifestyle on the house.”

Rinomato offered the following tips for staging a home:

1. Visit model homes and examine shelter magazines for inexpensive decorating ideas. Always keep in mind you are not decorating for yourself but for the general public.

2. Start with the outside. Give the house a fresh coat of paint, add shiny hardware to the front door and plant a few flowers to send a subliminal message the house is loved and well cared for.

3. Declutter every room to make it look larger. Get rid of family pictures, trophies and knickknacks. Closets and drawers should be no more than 30% full.

4. Invest in eco-friendly but bright lights. Open the drapes or remove them completely. “Light, bright rooms give the impression this is a happy place-and everyone wants to move into a happy place,” said Rinomato.

5. Feature only a few pieces of furniture with mainstream appeal. Pull pieces away from walls to make rooms look bigger.

6. Make sure a room’s primary use is obvious. A bedroom should look like a bedroom, not an office, hobby center or gym.

7. Bedrooms and kitchens are difficult to stage because they are in daily use, but make the effort. Clear everything off the counters and nightstands, roll up the rugs and hide the laundry hamper. Buff the cabinets with car wax and clean under the sinks. Invest in pristine white bed linens and towels.

8. Minimize the “pet effect.” Remove food bowls and litter boxes to the utility room. Deodorize thoroughly.

9. Organize the utility room and garage. Hang up the bicycles, roll up the hose. Renting a storage locker is worth the cost if it helps you sell faster and for a higher price.

10. Once your house is staged, invite your friends or Realtor over and walk them through to get an objective opinion.

Compliments of RISMEDIA March 19th 2010

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

In a recent Consumer Reports survey about everyday annoyances, with 10 being “annoys you tremendously,” respondents rated the failure to get a human being on a customer service line an 8.6, second only to hidden fees (8.9) and more irritating than spam e-mail (7.5) and inaccurate meteorologists (4.3), which was at the bottom of the list. Check out a free service that puts you in control of your time on this issue, plus other great cyber tricks and tips at: http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Valley Mortgage Rates Improve

Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 1/15/2011)

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% (5.75% Jumbo)

5/1 Arm: 3.75% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)

4.0% Jumbo Financing (7/1 Arm – with 25% Down)

15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.00%

Important Consumer Mortgage Information

Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage. Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs

Call Mike at 602-689-3100.

December 2010 eNewsletter

FEATURED STORIES

  • Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report (PDF)
  • Forecasting the Market – A New Tool
  • Valley Pending Foreclosure Numbers
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
  • Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International
  • Mike’s Tradesman of the Month – Metro Carpet Cleaning
  • Real Estate Cyber Tips (Link)
  • Current Mortgage Interest Rates
  • A Different Christmas Poem (You Tube)

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT

Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
Excerpted from STAT

The following online report is the new STAT format that we began using last month and which I’ll be using for future E-Newsletters. These stats, along with the data of the Cromford reports are well done and accurately report the most current numbers we have for Valley home sales. Remember, these stats are general, macro in nature – the important thing is that they may show us the trend of the market. These and Cromford are the most up-to-date stats available in our marketplace.

SALES Month over Month

Sales in November took a 2.9% upward tick to 6,786 total sales, 193 more sales than October. This reverses the recent downward trend seen in September and October. The overall upward sales trend line from January through April, which flattened May to June, took a decidedly downward tilt from July through October. As we comb the current month’s numbers, the increase this November can be seen as a glimmer of positive news.

SALES Year over Year

The November sales figure is 9.4% below the same figure in 2009. The 6,786 total sales for November surpass the 5,180 November sales average for 2001-2009. Total sales from October to November fell every November since 2001, with the exception of November 2010.

Sales Year Over Year

TOTAL INVENTORY

Currently there are 45,353 total residential listings, representing only a .2% increase over October. Total inventory has been on a gradual but steady upward trend since June. Between June and October the increases in total inventory each month averaged 1.82%. November’s increase of only 101 listings is good news.

Total Inventory

SALES PRICES

The trend lines for median and average sales prices are also downward, but not as dramatically as median and average listing prices. The median sales price for November fell $5,000, or 4.2%, to $115,000. Since January when the median sales price was $124,900, the median has fallen $9,900. The average sales price also followed a see saw pattern over 2010, falling from $175,700 in January to $159,000 in November, representing a $16,700 drop. Followed closely by the September 2010 ($159,824), April 2009 ($159,681) and March, 2009 ($159,080), the November average sales price is the lowest of the decade.

Sales Price

FORECASTING THE MARKET–THE PENDING PRICE INDEX™

The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS, based on the pending sales data in the MLS system. It predicts the average and median sales prices ninety days into the future. The PPI’s forecast value diminishes the further into the future it goes.

The predicted median sales price for December should remain steady at $115,000, rise in January 2011 to $118,000 and fall dramatically in February to $100,000. The February’s prediction is the least reliable at this point because it is based on lower number of closings scheduled ninety days into the future.

The forecasted median figures parallel, but fall short of, the predicted figures from the November STAT: last month’s December prediction was $117,000; this month’s December prediction is $115,000. Last month’s January prediction was $120,000; this month’s prediction is $118,000. February’s forecast represents a larger drop from the prediction of an unhealthy $105,000 last month to a predicted $100,000 in this month’s STAT.

The average sales price is expected to rise in December to $162,800, drop slightly in January to $161,500 and take a precipitous $20,400 drop (12.5%) in February to $141,100. If the predictions hold true for February, it will be the lowest average sales price since 2001.

Speculation about the cause of the steep drop in February should consider buyer and seller motivations. Sales made in November and December will close most likely in January and February. Traditionally, normal Sellers, those not in distress, will not elect to place their homes on the market during the holiday period, without a compelling reason to sell, e.g., a relocation. This behavior may be keeping normal listings, and hence normal sales, out of the prediction equation.

The December PPI predictions should be influenced more heavily by the pool of investors, who unlike traditional buyers would not be motivated to remain out of the market until after the holidays. Lender owners as well have no such reservations about the holiday. Many distressed properties, which tend to have a prolonged close of escrow period, may have already been under contract before the seasonal slowing. We may see those contracts dropping in number moving forward, but not see the effects on pricing until a few months into 2011.

The ARMLS PPI debuted in March 2010 and has no empirical data surrounding predictions which straddle the close of one year and the beginning of the next. If the February forecast is unduly influenced by the fallout from the holiday season, then logically we could predict that the decline in February would right itself in March and April closings. Since January and February sales would be free of natural reluctance to mar holiday family time and festivities, we would expect that a more normal mix of transactions would account for March and April closings.

Price Index

For my readers who crave more statistical junk food, I’ve included the entire report below: To read this excellent and easy-to-read PDF report click this link (Click here to view report)

VALLEY PENDING FORECLOSURES AS OF
NOVEMBER 2010: 41,032

Compared to November 2009 (50418) which is a decrease of 19%

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT

North Scottsdale’s home sales price rose in November but dropped 7% compared to a year earlier. It took more time to sell a North Scottsdale home compared to one year ago (106 vs 91 days).

Interestingly only two North Scottsdale Zip Codes lost value in November compared with 2009. All others increased including: 85254 up 3%. 85255 up 8%. 85258 up 10%. 85260 increased 6%. 85262 saw a double digit increase of 11%.

Only 85259 (-8%), and 85266 (-6%) dropped median value.

North Scottsdale increased its listing inventory this past month by 2%, compared to last year. It now stands at an increased Monthly Absorption Rate of 10, up from 8.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(Listings compare this month with last month
and Sales compare November 2010 vs. November 2009)

Current Listings:
Sales:
Ave. Sales Price:
85254
356 (+06%)
49 (-06%)
$282,000 (+03%)
85255
724 (-04%)
70 (+01%)
$555,000 (+08%)
85258
218 (-09%)
23 (+35%)
$350,000 (+10%)
85259
292 (-14%)
29 (+06%)
$460,000 (-08%)
85260
239 (-08%)
32 (-24%)
$309,000 (+06%)
85262
532 (-16%)
41 (-18%)
$570,000 (+11%)
85266
266 (-19%)
19 (-19%)
$455,000 (-06%)

2010: Listings have decreased 3%. Sales Decreased by 2%.
Median Sales Price dropped 7%

Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International

HomeSmart

As most of you know, I’ve been with Realty Executives for a long time, as in 13 years. It has been a great company to be associated with and I’ve made many friends within the company.

The reputation of the company has been excellent. We’ve been one of the top producing companies in the country and are currently ranked #11 for closed sales nationally. And just last week I received a letter from the President of the company congratulating me as being one of the top 250 agents in Realty Executives (out of 1300) for the first three quarters of this year.

So Mike, why change? Why change now?

Obviously, I can’t go into depth about all my reasons in a newsletter, but suffice to say it is a good time for a change which I’ve been sensing for awhile. HomeSmart is on the cutting edge electronically, administratively and marketing. It’s a paperless company which means that all paperwork must be digitized before I turn it in and all paperwork I receive is in an electronic format. All my listings and transactions are online.

The owner of the company, Matt Widdows, is a relatively young man with a strong vision for the company and our industry. The broker Trudy Moore, used to be the broker for Realty Executives. She is sharp, personable and well respected. It has potentially one of the best networking firms in the valley with almost 4000 agents – three times the amount we have at Realty Execs. HomeSmart Phoenix is in the top 20 companies nationally as well, though it’s been in existence for less than 10 years.

In my research, I sought out professionals from within the company and without. I also spoke with others in related fields including the mortgage and title industries. There was not one negative word that I’ve heard about this firm. All was positive.

So effective December 15th, I will be just down the hall from where I’m at now at the Desert Ridge Corporate Center, though it’s Suite 140 instead. I will also make use of our Scottsdale office located at Shea and Hayden in the NE corner. We have 7 offices valley wide and I have access to each one. If you’re thinking about stopping by to say “hi” make sure you give me a call ahead of time.

My contact #’s remain the same. 602-689-3100 is my mobile. Mike@MikeBodeen.com or Mike@NorthScottsdale.com is my e-mail.

Mike’s Trade of the Month – Metro Valley Carpet Cleaning

As most of you know, all the Trades of the Month I use are via personal experience or the valued referral of a close friend or client who has had remarkable success using them. December’s Tradesman of the Month is Bob McDaniel owner of Metro Valley Carpet Cleaning.

Karen and I have used Bob for a number of years now and is one of the professionals I refer to clients. Well, we put him up to the test of tests last week, cleaning our carpet. Now our carpet is generally not too dirty, but as some of you may recall my daughter and young granddaughters lived with us for 9 months earlier this year. Their “wing” of the house was to say the least, rough. I really didn’t believe he would be able to adequately clean the soiled areas, especially in the traffic areas of the home. In fact, Bob himself took a look at it and said that those areas were “iffy.”

Well, what can I say? He did an unbelievable job at a surprisingly reasonable price. Give Bob a call. He’s valley wide. His number is 480-232-8330.

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

This month’s cyber tips are pretty cool. How about a way to get a paper graded before you turn it in? Or, instantly turn a photo you have into a cartoon character? Or how about being able to see your resume as hiring managers do? Just click the Cybertips link below to take you to this month’s issue.

http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Mortgage Rates Rise, Still Under 5%
Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 12/14/2010)

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% to 5%.
15 Year Fixed Rate: 3.75% to 4.00%
5/1 Arm: 3.25% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)

Important Consumer Mortgage Information

Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage.

Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.

A Different Christmas Poem 12/10

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs

Call Mike at 602-689-3100.

October 2010 eNewsletter

FEATURED STORIES

Phoenix Metro (MLS) Home Sales Report (PDF)
Valley Pending Foreclosure Numbers
North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
A Nations Recessionary Journey (Great Graphic)
Arizona and all that it offers (video)
Real Estate Cyber Tips (Link)
Mortgage Interest Rates Remain Historically Low
The Facts Your Credit Score – A Must Read
Buying a Home After Foreclosure
Fannie Mae “Know Your Options” Website up and Running

Phoenix Metro (MLS) Home Sales Report (PDF)

Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

The following online report is the new STAT format I’ll be using for future E-Newsletters. These reports are well done and accurately state the most current numbers we have for Valley home sales in general.

There is a major difference in this report from my previous ones. These sales are for ALL MLS home sales, not just Single Family Detached (SFD). The important thing however, is that they are showing us the trend of the market.

This excellent and easy-to-read PDF report can be accessed by clicking this link (or cutting and pasting into your browser): http://armls.com/Libraries/STAT/STAT_October_2010.sflb.ashx

Assorted Sales Snippets of the
Maricopa County Single Family Detached market:
  • October 2010 single family detached home sales totaled 5689 – a drop of 11% from 2009, but a slight increase over August
  • October median sales price of $134,500 remains unchanged
  • Paradise Valley Median Sales Price increased 12% over last year.
  • Pending Listings are up 2% from last month totaling 10,135
  • Active Listings increased 4% since September. Absorption rate remains at 5 months
  • October residential sales (4936) dropped 18% since September of 2009
  • The sales price per square foot (psf) remains unchanged from September
  • 41% of all sales in all areas and types are traditional sales
  • 59% of all sales in all areas are distressed sales (Lender owned or Short Sales)

Valley Pending Foreclosures as of October 2010: 41,032

Compared to October 2009 (50418) which is a decrease of 19%

NE Valley Community Update

  • North Scottsdale: Median Price is up 3%
  • Carefree: Median Price is down 32%
  • Cave Creek: Median Price is down 13%
  • Fountain Hills: Median Price is down 19%
  • Phoenix: Median Price is -2%
  • Paradise Valley: Median Price +12%

NORTH SCOTTSDALE HOME PRICES RISE

North Scottsdale’s home sales in October dropped 22% compared to a year earlier. It took more time to sell a North Scottsdale home compared to one year ago (106 vs 91 days). As a whole North Scottsdale home prices increased 3% over September of 2009.

All but two North Scottsdale Zip Codes gained value: 85254 was up 3%. 85255 increased 8%. 85258 rose 10%. 85260 increased 6%. 85262 saw a double digit increase of 11%.

Only 85259 (-8%), and 85266 (-6%) dropped median value.

North Scottsdale increased its listing inventory this past month by 4%, compared to last year. It now stands at an increased Monthly Absorption Rate of 10, up from 8.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES - BY ZIP CODE

(Listings compare this month with last month
and Sales compare August 2010 vs. August 2009)

Current Listings:
Sales:
Ave. Sales Price:
85254
315 (+1%)
42 (+18%)
$305,000 (+3%)
85255
642 (+4%)
52 (-28%)
$567,000 (+8%)
85258
206 (+4%)
23 (0%)
$392,000 (+10%)
85259
272 (+6%)
34 (+60%)
$474,000 (-8%)
85260
219 (- 5%)
30 (-33%)
$423,000 (+6%)
85262
486 (+7%)
25 (-43%)
$590,000 (+11%)
85266
233 (+4%)
23 (-18%)
$525,000 (-6%)
Totals:
2373 (+4%)
229 (-22%)
$440,000 (+3%)

Current North Scottsdale Listing Absorption Rate
for September 2010 = 10 Months

A Nation’s Recessionary Journey
Graphically Depicted

My friend Brian sent me this link recently which is quite the graphic about our nation’s recessionary journey. It’s worth the few seconds it takes to view it. Oh, and by the way, Maricopa County is the county that looks like an upside down (purple) boot and is located in the SW part of the state.

http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html

Arizona – Check This Out…

There’s been much negative press about Arizona, but in my opinion, we live in one terrific place. Check this out:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejvF7YC_PIw

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

Every once in while most of us have three or four words running through our heads – a little snippet that pops up from a song from the past. And sometimes it drives us batty wondering what the name of that song was! At this great place all you need to do is enter the words you are hearing – and Shazam – the program will give you all of the possibilities that contain that phrase (from their collection of more than 470000 song lyrics).

Just click on the song you want more lyrics from and you’re in business. And, of course, this neat service is on the house! Just click the Cybertips link below to take you to this month’s issue. Check this out an many other tricks and tips:

http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Killer Low Mortgage Rates Currently for
Phoenix, Arizona

(as of 10/17/2010)

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.29%.

15 Year Fixed Rate: 3.68%

5/1 Arm: 3.19% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)

KNOWLEDGE IS POWER ~
TERRIFIC CURRENT EVENT READS FOR ANYONE

Know ANYONE who is
Struggling with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There could be strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage.

Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs,
Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100.

July 2010 eNewsletter

FEATURED STORIES

  • Phoenix Metro (The Valley) Home Sales Report
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
  • Pending Foreclosure Information
  • Scottsdale Ranked No 8 Best City for Families
  • Real Estate Cyber Tips
  • Mike’s July Trades Recommendation: Scorpion Slayer
  • Lowest Mortgage Interest Rates Since 1971
  • Mike’s New Home Listing: New Home w/Casita in Sonoran Foothills

PHOENIX METRO (THE VALLEY) HOME SALES REPORT

SIGNS POINT TO A CONTINUED STRUGGLE
Is the NE Valley an Exception?

This month’s real estate news is a mixed bag. I’ll try and give it to you straight.

The Valley’s residential real estate market, which had been improving monthly, is struggling once more. The Phoenix Metro market increased in listings, decreased in Sales, Pending Sales, and our sales Market Time slightly increased. The median sales price however rose 4% over one year ago to $135,000. Maricopa County’s median increased to $145,000, up 6% from one year ago. Interestingly, this appreciation rate was the steady norm from the mid 90’s to the early 2000’s.

On a positive note, the Valley still has a 3 month availability of homes for sale (absorption rate) and has over 15,000 pending sales.

Remember, real estate is local! There are communities such as North Scottsdale, Carefree, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills that fared pretty well recently, still gaining value, looking healthier than we’ve seen in years.

Compared to June/July of 2009:

North Scottsdale: Median Price rose 9%
Carefree: Median Price rose130%
Cave Creek: Median Price rose 15%
Fountain Hills: Median Price rose 4%
And then there’s Paradise Valley which had a 67% increase in sales compared to 2009, but dropped 25 % of value in one year. PV’s new median price for June is $1.1 million, down from $1.475 one year earlier.

A big factor in our sales increase this past year had been the tax credits that were available to first time home buyers and then to move-up buyers. It seems all eyes are now watching the Pending Index, which is of course a pretty good look as to what’s going to be closing in the months ahead. And to no one’s surprise, Pending Sales are down 15% from last month. We will probably be decreasing sales through the end of the year as is normally the case.

A Synopsis of the Phoenix Metro Area market:

  • June 2010 single family detached home sales totaled 7888. Still very strong but down 5% from one year ago.
  • June median prices ($135,000) are up 5% from one year ago, but down 2% from May.
  • Pending Listings are down 15% from last month totaling 15,296.
  • Active Listings have increased 3% since May. Absorption rate is 3 months. No Change.
  • 2010 residential Sales dropped slightly (-1%) since last year
    The sales price per square foot (psf) dropped 1% since May
  • Lender Owned sales make up 16% of all Single Family Detached (SFD) sales
  • Pre-Foreclosure (Short Sales) make up 40% of all SFD home sales
  • 56% of all SFD sales are distressed sales (Lender owned or Short Sales)

The overall percentage of distressed market sales has dropped. The REO (bank owned) and short sale market still make up 62% of all sales in the valley. There are over 46,000 pending foreclosures – which is a decrease of 8% versus last year. (See Chart Below)

NORTH SCOTTSDALE HOME SALES REPORT

North Scottsdale’s home sales in June rose 12% compared to a year earlier. As a whole North Scottsdale home prices rose 9% – the largest year over year increase in years. Three North Scottsdale Zip Codes lost value year over year: 85259 (-20%) and 85260 (- 7%) and 85255 (-2%).

North Scottsdale had a strong 12% increase in sales compared to 2009 and shed 5% of its listing inventory this past month. It maintains its 6 month absorption rate, which is much improved this last year.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(Listings compare this month with last month
and Sales compare June 2010 vs. June 2009)

Current Listings:
Sales:
Ave. Sales Price:
85254
280 (+4%)
81 (+5%)
$295,000 (+5%)
85255
606 (-5%)
97 (+17%)
$559,000 (-2%)
85258
185 (-7%)
35 (+30%)
$471,000 (+2%)
85259
254 (+2%)
57 (+119%)
$540,000 (-20%)
85260
210 (-4%)
38 (-24%)
$333,000 (-7%)
85262
471 (-11%)
50 (-21%)
$733,000 (+37%)
85266
227 (-9%)
36 (+38%)
$593,000 (+4%)
Totals:
2233 (-5%)
394 (+12%)
$467,000 (+9%)

Current North Scottsdale Listing Absorption Rate for July 2010 = 6 Months

I look for continued strength in North Scottsdale assuming money can continue to become more available in the jumbo arena. With record low mortgage rates (see below) many homeowners are choosing this time to refinance, which could be the last great opportunity to do so.

Pending Foreclosures as of July 10th 2010: 42,044

Compared to July 2009 ……46,056 which is a decrease of 08%
Compared to July 2008 ……23,675 which is an increase of 78%
Compared to July 2007 ……6,558 which is an increase of 877%
Compared to July 2006 ……2,339 which is an increase of 1798%

Scottsdale Ranked No. 8 for Best Cities for Families

Parenting Magazine has ranked the city of Scottsdale as the 8th best city for families. The Magazine rated cities based on the community’s health, safety, education, economy and recreation.

Scottsdale was rated #1 for Safety and #3 for recreation. For more information, click on the link: Click Here

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

Check out this month’s Cyber Tricks. Among other things, you’ll find a site that shows you how to do a photo montage. This easy to use online tool lets you create photo collages using one of their many collage templates. You simply drop your photos onto the template and then customize it dragging the photos around. After you’re happy with the layout and design, you can download or print your masterpiece.

http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Are you a wordnik? Curious about a word? Want to know more than you’ll find in a standard dictionary? Want to see an example in a sentence? How about seeing related words – not just synonyms and antonyms? This great place goes way beyond what we’ve come to expect in a dictionary. It gives us images related to the word. We can see how often a word is used each day – and how that number changes over the years. We can even hear the word pronounced.

Just click on the link above to check out this month’s Cyber Tricks.

INTEREST RATES LOWEST SINCE 1971

I wasn’t looking to buy a home when I was a junior in high school. But had I been interested, I would have landed bargain mortgage rates.

When I began selling real estate 5 years later in 1976 as a 22 year old, the rate was 9.75%, over twice what is was in 1971 and now. And what are the rates now? (And if you want to know what your mortgage amount would be, not including taxes and insurance, multiply the “Per Thousand” amount by the number of thousands in your new loan – For example, if you wanted to borrow $200,000 for your home loan, the principle and interest portion of your payment is $1042. (200 X $5.21)

The Historically Low Rates Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 7/11/2010):

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.62%. P&I per thousand: $5.21

15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.14% P&I per thousand: $7.47

5 Year Arm: 3.71% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts): P&I per thousand: $4.61

One Word of Advice to consider for the 5 Year Arm: Don’t!

Mike’s Trade of the Month Pick: Scorpion Slayer

Most all desert critters are cool, but when you get into the termite and scorpion category, they are not cool. I’ve been very fortunate to know excellent, reliable and honest tradesman, especially in the pest control business, and I want you to know about them too.
Some folks are under the mistaken notion that if you spray for pests each month, you won’t have termites, or scorpions. Well in the case of subterranean termites that’s not true. In the case of Scorpions, that’s also probably not true to a large degree.

Termites in Arizona for the most part are subterranean, or underground. Spray treatments won’t affect them; you’ll need to go under the surface with an effective termiticide.

Scorpions are not as easy to take out as ants, roaches, spiders, etc. They require an aggressive and persistent treatment, which when properly administered, will keep scorpions away.

Their name can be misleading as it may seem like Scorpion Slayer handles just scorpions, but really they take on all pests, including termites. I was thrilled however that they do treat for scorpions because the community I live in was known for an abundance of those critters. I had a few of them in my home but only a few months after Stu started treatment, we’ve not seen any — alive that is.

If your’re considering interviewing a new Pest Control company for termites or scorpions, or whatever, I can heartily recommend “Scorpion Slayer,” which is my trade of the month.

In Phoenix, you can reach Stuart at 480-813-3914, or in Tucson talk to Greg (520-780-7124). I know both of these gentlemen and I’m happy to say that they’ve always done a terrific job for myself and clients.

(Just for the record, I do not receive any remuneration from these referrals, and in fact most of the time these companies don’t know I’ve done this until they read about it or receive a call from a new customer)

Know ANYONE who is Struggling
with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage.

Call Mike at 602-689-3100 for more info.


Mike’s New Listing in Sonoran Foothills
Brand New. Stunning 180 Degree Mountain and City Light Views
(Picture above is the Model – a Mirror Image of the actual home)

This new and gorgeous home has just been completed by Monterey Homes (Now Meritage), in Sonoran Foothills, a community of stunning homes located in the north metro area of Phoenix, Arizona, just north of the I-17/101 junction. Downtown Phoenix is a short drive away, and you’ll be close to outdoor fun in the Cave Buttes and Cave Creek Recreation Areas, along with numerous golf courses nearby. Part of the Deer Valley School District,
it’s an ideal area for bustling families.

HOME SPECS:

5 Bedrooms, 3.5 Baths, 3 Car Garage, 3238 SqFt,
Great Room. Large Upgraded Kitchen
Courtyard with Outdoor Fireplace
Private Casita with Full Bath
$439,500.00

This particular lot was the first buyer choice in this 39 lot section of
Sonoran Foothills called Desert Enclave.

Tens of Thousands of Dollars of Upgrades poured into this kitchen including beautiful cabinets, furniture Island, Slab Granite Countertops, Stainless Steel Appliances, 6 Burner Gas Range with Oven, Additional Wall oven and Microwave, 42” Built In Referigerator included too.

Call Mike for a personal showing today. $439,500.00.

602-689-3100

Sonoran Foothills Clubhouse and Rec Center
Swimming, Tennis, Volleyball, Basketball, BBQ and more

Leisure AND Lap Pool at Rec Center

Playground

If you haven’t signed up yet for my FREE e-newsletter, go to my website at www.NorthScottsdale.com and in the “How Can I Help” box under the Realty Executives logo on the right margin, click on “Monthly Newsletter,” and fill in your name and e-mail address. And of course your privacy is honored.

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs

Call Mike at 602-689-3100.

April 2010 eNewsletter

FEATURED STORIES

  • Phoenix Metro (The Valley) Home Sales Report
  • Pending Foreclosure Information
  • Find Home Value and Foreclosure Info by Zip Code
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
  • North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
  • Mike’s Real Estate Cyber Tips
  • Mike’s Heating and Air Conditioning Recommendations
  • April’s Editorial: Is “Walking Away” From a House Legal? Ethical? Wise?
  • Two Pro and Con “Walking Away” Viewpoints from the AZ Republic
  • Mike Obtains CDPE and SFR Designations for Distressed homeowners
  • The Valley’s Most Expensive Home for Sale

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT
IN A WORD ~ BALANCED AND STABILIZING!

As a whole, the Valley residential real estate market has achieved balance and is stabilizing. Median prices valley-wide bottomed out in October 2009. The median sales price remains at $125,000 for ALL TYPES of properties in ALL areas since then. Why do we look at the BIG picture? Because by looking at this macro view we can observe trends better. Does it pertain to where you live? Maybe yes, but maybe no. Remember, all real estate is local.

Negative appreciation in the Valley has bottomed out. In fact it hit bottom in October, but it takes a number of months to chart a consistent pattern, and most all the signs are looking positive right now. I believe that all future pricing will look at this time as the bottom of our market. Some of my reasons include:

  • 2009 single family detached home sales finished a near-record level and were up 56% over 2008. 2010 is ahead of last year’s pace.
  • 2009 Townhouse and Condo sales rose 63% over the previous year. The average days on the market dropped 10%.
  • Pending Listings are up 46% in one month and more than double in two years.
  • Active Listings are decreasing from last month, last quarter, last year and two years ago.
  • 2010 residential Sales are up by almost 900 over last year at this time.
  • The sales price per square foot (psf) is on the rise, up 12% comparing April of 2009.
  • Foreclosures are for the moment leveling out.
  • Active Listings are down from last month and the 1st quarter. Pending sales in escrow are at near historic high levels. And appreciation is returning in many parts of the valley.

Despite the good news, major challenges remain and will so for who knows how long. The REO (bank owned) and short sale market still make up 62% of all sales in the valley. There are over 48,000 pending foreclosures – a record number. (See Chart Below)

Pending Foreclosures as of April 15th 2010: 48,063

Compared to April 2009….. 41,773 which is an increase of 15%
Compared to April 2008….. 19,213 which is an increase of 150%
Compared to April 2007….. 5,164 which is an increase of 831%
Compared to April 2006….. 2,295 which is an increase of 1994%

Find Your Zip Code Value and Foreclosure Info:

This is a cool link from the Arizona Republic – perhaps you’ve seen it. This compares 2009 and 2008 in each of our zip code communities. Just hit control + click to follow link.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE HOME SALES REPORT

North Scottsdale’s home sales in March were all over the board. As a whole the number of sales increased by 91% while prices dropped by 2% – the lowest monthly drop in almost two years. And two of our communities (zips 85258 and 85259) rose in the median price by 23% and 15% respectively versus March of 2009.

North Scottsdale’s two most expensive zip codes 85262 and 85266 are still shedding value and probably will for awhile to come. There is good news in the financing front as more lenders are looking again to do jumbo loans. As more of this money is available, and if rates can hold their own, though that is debatable right now, we’ll see higher end home sales, but they’ve not hit bottom yet.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(March 2010 vs. March 2010 by Zip Code)

Current Listings:
Sales:
Ave. Sales Price:
85254
290 (-10%)
74 (+54%)
$290, 000 (-3%)
85255
683 (-06%)
107 (+53%)
$500, 000 (-1%)
85258
232 (+01%)
21 (+40%)
$518, 000 (+23%)
85259
263 (-09%)
38 (-03%)
$555, 000 (+15%)
85260
209 (-05%)
48 (+153%)
$348, 000 (-1%)
85262
509 (-02%)
58 (+26%)
$430, 000 (-30%)
85266
279 (-075%)
38 (+81%)
$546, 000 (-22%)
Totals:
2546 (-05%)
348 (+58%)
$420, 000 (-2%)

Current North Scottsdale Listing Absorption Rate for March 2010 = 7 Months

Mike’s Link of the Month – Real Estate Cyber Tricks

This is a great link I’ll be bringing to you each issue. It’s full of cool internet helps, entertainment, problem solving and much more. For example in this issue there’s a free link to a site that enables you to fix photos – free. There’s also a tip to show you how to easily restore your place on the computer should the inadvertent and periodic crash occur. What about watching past TV shows you might have missed such as Lost, or 24, or House. Check it out – I think you’ll like it!

Mike’s Heating and Air Conditioning Recommendation

We all hope and pray that nothing goes awry with our air conditioning units, but if we’ve lived here for any length of time, the possibility is that we’ve already experienced a warm blowing unit in July when it’s 110 outside. When that time comes (not if) I can heartily recommend Reliance Refrigeration

Reliance Refrigeration ( http://www.relianceac.com ) has an A+ rating with the Better Business Bureau, but most importantly, I know that if you uses this company you will know the truth about what’s going on and appreciate the quality of service rendered to you. Dalen Blumentritt is the owner of the company which was started by his father in 1984

There are a number of Heating and Air Conditioning companies in the valley that I’m sure are honest, reliable and reputable, but this issue’s recommendation, like all my recommendations are based on personal experience, either by myself or someone I know and can trust. This one is personal. I’ve gotten to know Dalen not just as a businessman but a good friend and former neighbor as well.

Their company number is 602-944-9585. Make sure to mention that I referred you.

(Just for the record, I do not receive any remuneration from these referrals, and in fact most of the time these companies don’t know I’ve done this until they read about it or receive a call from a new customer)

March’s Opinion: Is Walking Away From a House Legal? Ethical? Wise?

My first caveat to this article is “I’m not a lawyer or CPA.” My second caveat? See the first!

One of the great moral dilemna’s of our modern society has to do with homeowners who walk away from their homes, or do a short sale paying back to the lender less than what is owed on the contract. Some people don’t have a problem with this issue stating that it’s a business, or economic decision. Others simply will not do either out of moral conviction.

This brings up my strongest advice in the entire article, and I’ll give it to you right up front so as to save you time in reading this. Always go with your conviction. Just make sure that the foundation of your conviction is true.

First off is it legal to walk away from the mortgage debt on your home? Again, see my first two caveats above. This is my take on it: When Joe Homeowner bought his home, he needed the help of a lender to buy it. He borrowed money from a lending institution. He also chipped in some cash called the Down payment. The security instrument for this borrowed money in Arizona is called a Deed of Trust. In other states it is refered to as a mortgage. For the sake of this opinion piece, we will also call it a mortgage as that is the common usage today. The collateral for the borrowed money is the home itself. If for any reason that buyer signed an obligation to be “personally” responsible for the full repayment of that mortgage, then that is a different matter. But that is generally not the case for someone buying an owner occupied home in Arizona.

Joe’s debt to the lender, or mortgage amount is $225,000. His home however, is only worth $75,000. From the review of comparable sales in his neighborhood, he is hopelessly “upside down.” The possibility of Joe ever getting his head above water in his lifetime is at best questionable. Realistically, it’s not going to happen anytime soon. Joe understands this. Joe also understands that if he were to either sell his home on a short sale, or lose the house in foreclosure, his credit will take a whopping hit. It may take years for Joe to be able to restore his credit to allow him to buy a home again at regular market rates. He is willing to risk that. Joe stops making payments.

Three months after Joe stops making his payments he receives a Notice of Trustees Sale (NTS) saying that in 3-4 months, his home will go to Trustees sale. (aka Foreclosure sale) Where does this authority come from? It comes from the Deed of Trust signed by the buyer when he took out the mortgage to buy the home. No problems there, everyone agrees to that.

What is the deed of trust? In its most basic form, it is a contract between the borrower and lender. In this contract if the borrower does not repay the loan according to the terms of the prommissory note and deed of trust, the lender can begin steps to recover the asset. (aka foreclose) If the lender does foreclose, the lender will then own the home, satisfying the contract. The lender has no further recourse. This is especially true in Arizona, due to our anti-deficiency statutes.

In the end, Joe lost his home. The lender utilized the legal document to get the home back. So was it illegal? No. No law was broken. He won’t be arrested. He won’t even be prosecuted. The contract was, in a sense completed.

Is it ethical? That is a question for each individual to answer. Everyone answers to their own conscience. If the conscience is bothered, then the person has to deal with that. If they don’t, they will accrue continual guilt. Some feel since they made a promise to repay they are bound by that, regardless of the collateral agreement, which is again, up to the individual.

Is it wise? This is a very important question as well. There will be financial and perhaps personal implications either way. Loss of credit on one hand. Not being able to sell your house for a long time or perhaps ever on the other. There could also be severe IRS consequences if the property does not comply with anti-deficiency rules, such as it needing to be a primary residence and less than 2.5 acres to name a few. If someone is upside down like Joe, and it’s a second home or investment property, the bank may agree to take less than what is owed, but IRS will view that “forgiven” debt as “income” and will tax the walker accordingly

And then there are short sales. In a short sale, the lender AGREES to take less than what is owed on the property to make a sale work. That seems to be a pretty good way to go for everyone, and it may satisfy most people’s ethical issues.

What I am personally affronted by are those folks who not only walk away from their homes but either strip it bare or commit intentional damage to the home. THAT IS AGAINST THE LAW. Where is that stated? In the same Deed of Trust contract that the parties agreed to. Those folks should be prosecuted.

Personally I wonder why this question is not being discussed more in an open forum. Could it be because the lenders and the government don’t want to awaken the issue within the American public? If that were to happen would we really see a stampede of short sales happening? It could happen, which could further damage our economy. But even though that may be the catastrophic result, is that by itself reason not to engage in public debate and full disclosure?

Two (pro and con) Viewpoints
given in the Arizona Republic:

Buyers have no moral duty to lender

Bad decision is no excuse to skip out on homes

Mike Obtains Two Designations to Help Folks Struggling in their “upside down” situation!

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. I recently obtained the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation and the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification. All interviews are confidential. Call Mike at 602-689-3100 for more info.

THE VALLEY’S MOST EXPENSIVE
HOME FOR SALE

Check out the Valley’s most expensive home. And of course, if you or anyone you know would like to view it for purchase, please give me a call.

40 Acres on Mummy Mountain
Includes Mini Golf Course
$27,000,000 and change

Click here for full listing information

If you haven’t signed up yet for my FREE e-newsletter, go to my website at www.NorthScottsdale.com and in the “How Can I Help” box under the Realty Executives logo on the right margin, click on “Monthly Newsletter,” and fill in your name and e-mail address. And of course your privacy is honored.

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs,

Call Mike at 602-689-3100.

December 2009 eNewsletter

FEATURED STORIES

Phoenix Metro (The Valley) Home Sales Report
Phoenix Metro Forecast
North Scottsdale Home Sales Forecast
North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
Link of the Month – AZ Central’s Value Chart
FICO Credit Scoring – I’m shocked!
Small Projects, Big Bang – Annual Cost VS Value Study
Foreclosures of the Rich and Famous

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT

“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.”
- Neils Bohr

As bad as 2009 has been, it’s also been a turnaround year for the Phoenix Metropolitan residential real estate market. April of this year saw the bottom of the market for the median sales price for most areas of the valley – the exception being the higher priced communities. They are still sliding though the slide is much more gradual. All things considered, our current market is the most stable we’ve had in 5 years.

‘All things considered, our current market is the
most stable we’ve had in 5 years.’

Looking back to December of 2008, saw the Phoenix Metro area having over 56,000 listings. December of 2007 was about the same. Today we find ourselves with just over 40,000 – an inventory drop of 29% in one year. Overall we have a 4 month absorption rate which usually means a healthy seller’s market, except at this time. Regular homeowners are still in competition with distressed sales.

At this time last year we had 6250 Pending listings compared with 10,600 today – a 59% increase. Year-to-date sales are over 91,000 compared with 58,000 one year ago – a 57% increase. New home sales have increased as well and the builder “spec” inventory is the lowest (under 1500) we’ve seen in many years and a lot lower than the high of 2400.

Arizona’s November unemployment rate dropped into the single digit range (8.9%) while the nation as a whole remains over 10%. Read More…

Nationally the real estate picture is improving also. A recent article from the Wall Street Journal reports that resales increased more than expected which will help all the more with consumer confidence. Read more…

PHOENIX METRO FORECAST

Will 2010 remain stable like the last half of this year? Or will it be another trying year for homeowners in the Valley of the Sun? The answer to both I believe is yes! The reason why it will be a trying year and the reason why the market will continue to turnaround is answered by the word S – L – O – W.

Our society in general and perhaps Phoenicians specifically are into quick, fast, and easy – everything! But that’s going to change – because we don’t have a choice. If we don’t learn to embrace patience, we will be very frustrated. So hear it here: We are in for a long and slow recovery. But that is not all bad.

For the market to substantially turn, it will take a radical slowing of foreclosures. Will foreclosures radically slow soon? Foreclosures at best may level out this year, but many “experts” predict many more are on the way. My friend Tony just sent me this article today from Yahoo Finance written by Robert Kiyosaki (Rich Dad, Poor Dad). Interesting read. He believes we’re in for a new round of foreclosures because of the huge amount of mortgage resets due to occur in the next two years. Complete Article… Mortgage resets are when mortgages become due and payable. In the past, owners would refinance the loan, but that’s no longer a slam dunk!

This is not crystal ball stuff folks, but math stuff. If the valley has 50,000 pending foreclosures (and we do) and the rate is not slowing (it’s not) we can see that the foreclosure problems will be with us for awhile. And for these to slow, the Arizona economy must improve, the unemployment rate must drop, and consumer confidence must rise.

Pending Foreclosures as of:

December 2009: 50,607
December 2008: 30,676
December 2007: 12,806
December 2006: 4,089
December 2005: 2,558

Can government interference, uh, I mean intervention, help? Well, there’s always a first time for everything, right? Remember the Apollo project? A man on the moon? It happened. I believe at this point the government will enact measures to strongly deal with these foreclosures, but what will the unintended consequences be? Foreclosures may level out because short sales will increase and banks will be forced to move these short sales quicker. There will of course be huge abuses and corruption. Count on it.

The more that home inventories slow, the more balanced our market will become. The reverse is also true. If inventories increase, values will remain subdued.

Another part of the turnaround equation has to do with interest rates. Can mortgage rates remain low? Affordability must continue to be a main commodity for the health of this economy.

‘Affordability must continue to be a main commodity for the health of this economy…’

A number of money professionals are predicting a substantial rise for rates in 2010. Credit-Suisse is projecting rates in the 7’s to 8’s. To be honest, it’s been unimaginable they’ve remained as low as they have for so long. Will this be the year that we will all look back on and say remember 2009?

The low to moderate price ranges (up to $350,000) will continue to be the strongest. Above that the market has struggled, but there are signs of money loosening up in the higher end. This, along with local consumer confidence can help stem the tide of continuing price decreases. Scottsdale’s November sales of single family detached homes lost just 9% compared with November of 2008. Though sales in Paradise Valley jumped 96% in November compared with 2008, PV also had the largest median sales price drop of the entire Valley’s major cities – 29% lower than 2008.

The real estate industry will continue to change radically this year. We liken it to a moving target. Just when we’re getting up to speed on the latest market changes, zip, the market and the rules that govern the market have changed. 2010 will continue this challenging trend. Bucking this trend is Fountain Hills which showed a 14% median sales price increase in November VS 2008.

‘No one knows what 2010 has in store except change. The direction of change will not be known until we’ve passed it.’

NORTH SCOTTSDALE HOME
SALES REPORT / FORECAST

North Scottsdale has come a long way. The community dropped just 9% compared with November of last year. To understand that this is good, you would need to know that most of the preceding months recorded double digit price drops.

Sales were up 96% vs 2008. Days on market reduced by 5% also. For the first time in well over a year North Scottsdale has a single digit Absorption Rate (9). One year ago, North Scottsdale had a 21 month supply of homes on the market. Huge gains have been made.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(November 2009 vs. November 2008 by Zip Code)

Current Listings:
Sales:
Ave. Sales Price:
85254
(-0%)
(+11%)
$281, 000 (-44%)
85255
(-3%)
(+200%)
$570, 000 (-12%)
85258
(+5%)
(+143%)
$460, 000 (-05%)
85259
(+4%)
(+63%)
$678, 000 (-17%)
85260
(-1%)
(+34%)
$357, 000 (-12%)
85262
(-7%)
(+163%)
$500, 000 (-22%)
85266
(+5%)
(+33%)
$570, 000 (-35%)
Totals:
(-2%)
(+92%)
$430, 000 (-09%)

Current North Scottsdale Listing Absorption Rate for November 2009 = 9 Months

Link of the Month – AZ Central’s Value Chart

Several months ago, AZ Central published this terrific online value chart which allows the interactive user to find any Valley zip code community to check the median values or foreclosures in that area. This is a keeper! Zip Code Value Chart

FICO Credit Scoring – I’m shocked!

Russ Wiles, a business editor with the Arizona Republic, recently wrote this story shedding some of the mystery regarding FICO scores (aka Credit Scoring). Read Entire Column… As Realtors we’ve been hearing rumors for quite awhile about how much damage a short sale or foreclosure will have on a person’s credit. The methodology that the company, Fair Isaacs uses is complicated and understood by few.

One of the things that Russ’ article brought out was that a 30 day late on a bill, according to Fair Isaacs, could drop you 60-80 points in your credit scoring. And get this, going through a foreclosure? Only 85-105 points??? This one shocks me, and I find it very hard to believe. We’ve heard 200-250 point drop for a foreclosure and 150 – 200 point drop for a short sale.

I hope to have a follow up article on this for the next issue.

Small Projects, Big Bang

Judicious home remodeling is still worth the investment, according to Remodeling magazine’s annual “Cost vs. Value Report.”

By G.M. Filisko

Uncertainty and restraint are the order of the day in this economy, and that sense of caution is reflected in home owners’ return on their investment in remodeling projects, according to REALTORS® in 80 metropolitan markets surveyed by Remodeling magazine for this year’s Cost vs. Value Report. Read Entire Article…

The majority of the 10 remodeling projects with the best return on investment nationally are a testament to pragmatism. Six of the 10 projects—siding and window replacement using a variety of materials—involve home maintenance that costs less than $14,000.

M. Filisko is a freelance writer for REALTOR® magazine.

Foreclosures of the Rich and Famous

The folks who are not like you and me seemed to have some of the same problems that society in general is having. No exemption here. From congressional members to sports athletes, foreclosures happen. Check out this article, which is slightly outdated (9/09) but an interesting read nonetheless. Read the entire Article

If you haven’t signed up yet for my FREE e-newsletter, go to my website at www.NorthScottsdale.com and in the “How Can I Help” box under the Realty Executives logo on the right margin, click on “Monthly Newsletter,” and fill in your name and e-mail address. And of course your privacy is honored.

November 2009 eNewsletter

NOVEMBER STORIES

  • Phoenix Metro Sales Report
  • Valley Wide Significant Stats
  • North Scottsdale Sales Update
  • 9 Tips for Improving Your Credit Score Now
  • Finally Some Innovation to Help Families
  • Home Buyers Tax Credit Extended and Expanded
  • Joe Montana’s Incredible $49er Million Home

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT (July 09)

In the big picture of the Phoenix Metropolitan real estate market, balance has been achieved. We could also say that with a few exceptions, the bottom of the market happened this past winter/spring. Overall for example we have a 4.9 month supply of inventory on the market. That’s balanced. Sales of all types of homes have gone through the roof this year exceeding 2008 by over 30,000 units year-to-date. That increase has significantly lowered overall inventory levels by over 15,000 units compared to one year ago. The overall market is getting closer to a new normal of inventory available on the market.

But there is one segment of the local economy that is still so far out of whack and threatening to get worse. I’m referring to the percentage of homes sold that were lender owned (REO), and short sale (SS) versus those that were normal sales. Fully two out of three sales this last month were in the former category. A full and complete return to market normalcy will not occur until foreclosures and short sales have been radically reduced.

Some believe we will have a mixture of these market segments for years to come. Whether or not that’s true only time will tell, but in the next year or so there still seems to be a high probability of many more foreclosures and short sales.

Interestingly enough, the Wall Street Journal recently reported that 123 out of 153 Metropolitan areas in the U.S. saw year over year reductions in their home values, whereas Phoenix has now had 3 consecutive quarters of price increases totaling 10% since the first quarter. (Read Full Article)

A number of cities registered an increase in their median sales price from September to October including Cave Creek, Chandler, Fountain Hills, Goodyear, Mesa, Phoenix, Scottsdale, North Scottsdale

VALLEY WIDE — SIGNIFICANT STATS

ACTIVE MLS RESIDENTIAL LISTINGS: 39,861
MLS LISTINGS – LAST YEAR: 55,750 (-29%)

CURRENT PENDING SALES: 12,107
PENDING SALES – LAST YEAR: 6227 (+94%)

2009 YEAR TO DATE SALES: 88,494
2008 YEAR TO DATE SALES: 56,420 (+57%)

CURRENT MEDIAN PRICE: $130,000
MEDIAN PRICE – LAST YEAR: $159,000 (-18%)

HOMES ON THE MARKET CURRENTLY: 4.9
HOMES ON THE MARKET – LAST YEAR: 11.1 (-56%)

FORECLOSURES:

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES UPDATE

8% Median Price Jump (September 2009-October 2009)

North Scottsdale registered an 8% increase in the October median sales price ($459,000) compared to September ($426,000). Overall, the median sales price only dropped 6% from one year ago, the first such single digit drop in well over a year. Sales of single family detached homes increased 4% from a year ago as well. One zip code, 85259 showed a 9% year over year median sales price gain. Now that’s something to write home about!

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES BY ZIP CODE

Current North Scottsdale Listing Absorption Rate
for November 2009 = Nine (9) Months

Every North Scottsdale zip code community increased year over year sales for October and as a whole increased 56% versus October of 2008. Overall, prices may be turning the corner. 5 out of 7 zip codes in North Scottsdale showed price increases versus the previous month. I continue to expect the lower North Scottsdale price ranges (zip codes 85254, 85260) to have leveled out. The higher communities will still be adjusting their prices southward for awhile.

9 TIPS TO REPAIR YOUR CREDIT SCORE

Your credit scoring has everything to do with your ability to obtain credit, including mortgages, credit cards, student and card loans – in fact almost everything. The lower the credit score, the lower the interest rate on the loan, meaning more money in your pocket.

I came across this excellent article in one of my online publications, RISMEDIA, recently and felt it would be a valuable to republish here. The authors are Christine Van Tuyl and Margaret La Grange, an award-winning mother-daughter team with Prudential California Realty in Coronado, California. Please keep in mind that Christine and Margaret are real estate agents, not mortgage lenders. For more information on how your credit score will impact your loan and interest rate, please contact your mortgage lender. If you need an excellent referral, giver me a call.

1. Review your current credit report for accuracy. Everyone is entitled to one free credit report per year from each of the three credit bureaus—Experian, Equifax, and TransUnion. Get a copy of your credit report and look at it for accuracy. First, make sure that the information in your file is about you and only you, not someone who has a similar name or a similar Social Security number. It is very common for your credit reports to have mistakes or incorrect information. At a minimum, make sure that the information you are being evaluated on is current and correct.

2. Repair credit report mistakes. If you find something on your credit report that is incorrect or missing, you should dispute the mistake by contacting the credit bureaus directly. All credit bureaus have their dispute procedures on their website. They are also required by law to investigate any disputed items and these investigations will usually be done within 30 days of your request.

3. Pay your bills on time. Sounds like a no-brainer, right? Payment history accounts for roughly 35% of your credit score. Paying bills on time is the most important thing to do. If you’re struggling to catch up, contact your creditors to work out a payment schedule.

4. Increase the length of your credit history. This accounts for about 15% of your score. Don’t cancel your old card or get a lot of new ones in a short time span because this can hurt your score.

5. Keep credit card balances low. It’s a good idea to keep the balances below 25% of your available credit. Even if you pay off your credit cards every month, a high average balance will impact your score. This accounts for about 30% of your credit score.

6. Keep new credit requests to a minimum. This accounts for 10% of your score. Every time a lender runs your credit, an inquiry is recorded. If you are trying to get a loan, don’t apply for new credit cards first.

7. Be aware that paying off a collection account will not remove it from your credit report. It will stay on your report for seven years.

8. Pay off debt rather than moving it around. The most effective way to improve your credit score in this area is by paying down your revolving credit. In fact, owing the same amount but having fewer open accounts may lower your score.

9. Beware credit-repair scams. By all means, don’t pay someone to wipe away the negative items in your file. If they don’t follow through, the damaging items will reappear in two or three months.

About the authors: Christine Van Tuyl and Margaret La Grange are award-winning agents with Prudential California Realty in the Coronado Village office. A mother-daughter team with San Diego family roots going back 75 years, Christine and Margaret pride themselves on delivering impeccable service for home buyers and sellers alike.

FINALLY – SOME INNOVATION TO HELP FAMILIES STAY IN THEIR HOME FANNIE MAE ANNOUNCES DEED FOR LEASE™ PROGRAM

WASHINGTON, DC — Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) is implementing the Deed for Lease™ Program under which qualifying homeowners facing foreclosure will be able to remain in their homes by signing a lease in connection with the voluntary transfer of the property deed back to the lender.

“The Deed for Lease Program provides an additional option for qualifying homeowners who are facing foreclosure and are not eligible for modifications,” said Jay Ryan, Vice President of Fannie Mae. “This new program helps eliminate some of the uncertainty of foreclosure, keeps families and tenants in their homes during a transitional period, and helps to stabilize neighborhoods and communities.”

The new program is designed for borrowers who do not qualify for or have not been able to sustain other loan-workout solutions, such as a modification. Under Deed for Lease, borrowers transfer their property to the lender by completing a deed in lieu of foreclosure, and then lease back the house at a market rate.

To participate in the program, borrowers must live in the home as their primary residence and must be released from any subordinate liens on the property. Tenants of borrowers in this circumstance may also be eligible for leases under the program. Borrowers or tenants interested in a lease must be able to document that the new market rental rate is no more than 31% of their gross income.

Leases under the new program may be up to 12 months, with the possibility of term renewal or month-to-month extensions after that period. A Deed for Lease property that is subsequently sold includes an assignment of the lease to the buyer.

HOME BUYERS TAX CREDIT EXTENDED AND EXPANDED

As expected, Congress passed and President Obama signed into law last week the 2009-2010 Home Buyer Tax Credit. There was also an additional provision which credits $6500 to buyers who have already owned their home in 5 consecutive years over the past eight year period.

As part of its plan to stimulate the U.S. housing market and address the economic challenges facing our nation, Congress has passed new legislation that:

- Extends the First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit of up to $8,000 to first-time home buyers until April 30, 2010.

- Expands the credit to grant up to $6,500 credit to current home owners purchasing a new or existing home between November 7, 2009 and April 30, 2010.

(Read the Full Story)

JOE MONTANA’S ESTATE PRICED AT $49 MILLION MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH!

(Mike’s Note: As a 49er faithful going back to the Kezar Stadium days culminating in the incredible Super Bowl runs of the 80′s, I like everyone else was a huge admirer of Joe. I’m just not sure even he will be able to convert this drive to sell his Northern California home – at least at this price)

Standing in the upstairs living room on a brisk October morning, Jennifer Montana described her husband, football great Joe Montana, as a simple guy. “He needed a beer tap, a pretty good-sized television screen and a barbecue area,” she said.

Simple wouldn’t be the first word that comes to mind in describing the couple’s retreat, which extends into both Napa and Sonoma counties. Set on 500 acres on a hilly, forested expanse with year-round creeks and uninterrupted views, the couple’s 9,700-square-foot Tuscan villa-style house with a tower boasts the beer tap and many hidden flat-screen televisions, but what commands attention are the baronial flourishes and details, many of them imported from Europe. And Joe’s price? What else, 49 Million Dollars! Continue story by clicking on this link: Click Here!

If you haven’t signed up yet for my FREE e-newsletter, go to my website at www.NorthScottsdale.com and in the “How Can I Help” box under the Realty Executives logo on the right margin, click on “Monthly Newsletter,” and fill out the short application (name and e-mail address only). And of course your privacy is honored.

Also, don’t forget to check out my blog. Go to www.NorthScottsdale.com and click on the blog tag that’s on the home page.

July 2009 eNewsletter

JULY STORIES

Phoenix Metro Sales Report
North Scottsdale Sales Update
Lender Owned Sales
Video and Pics of the Month ~ One Incredible Pool
Mike’s New Blog
Tradesman of the Month ~ Ted Neff
Link of the Month ~ ADOT Road Traffic Reports
Words That Sell and Words That Don’t
Errors Found on Property Tax Bills


PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT (July 2009)

THE PHOENIX IS RISING ~
FOR MOST CITIES, THE BOTTOM HAS HIT!

In 2001-2003 I well remember telling many Valley folks, especially visitors to our state, that it was refreshing to work in a real estate environment that was consistent from year to year. Oh, the appreciation was not like the California market I had come from as we were “only” averaging 3-5% per year, but that appreciation was EACH year. Our state was growing, and sales were increasing, but it all seemed so manageable. I recall comparing the California market swings to a richter scale of extreme highs and lows. Ours was boring, but healthy.

And then came 2004-2005, followed by 2006 to 2009. Everything has changed. It is still changing.

From the euphoric high of ’04 to ’05 (from a homeowner’s perspective) to the cataclysmic plunge that has ensued, we joined our eccentric neighbors to the west in their radical ups and downs.

And now the Phoenix metro sales market is not just leveling out, but rising. Every city that I track on a monthly basis dropped inventory and absorption time. The Valley as a whole is now at a 3 month absorption rate. (Absorption rate as related to real estate is the amount of time it takes for the current inventory of homes for sale to leave the market)

Six months has been historically known as a balanced sales market. On March 1st just 4 months ago, the Phoenix metro area had a 9 month supply of homes for sale. Today we are at 3 months. But to get there our cities have taken a huge value/equity hit, as in a drop of 37% in the median price of a valley home from June of 2008.

40% of Valley cities showed an INCREASE in the median sales price from the previous month! The Valley as a whole gained 7% in the median price of a single family detached dwelling IN ONE MONTH. That’s not a mis-print. It went from $122,000 in May to $130,000 in June.

Cities that showed an increase in their median sales prices from May to June include:

Chandler (+13%)
Gilbert (+5%)
Glendale (+21%)
Goodyear (+1%)
Paradise Valley (+16%)
Phoenix (+16%)

Almost every other city tracked showed values to be even or within a 1% drop from May, including Scottsdale, Cave Creek, Mesa, Sun City West, Surprise, and Tempe. This is a very positive sign.

So Mike, what’s your take on
where the market goes from here?

The under $350,000 market continues to do well. Over $400,000 continues to suffer. What’s the difference? Financing and consumer confidence. You give folks consistent good economic news and affordable financing, and in the case of higher end homes, you give them assurance of a rebounding economy where they just might keep their job for awhile, and positive things will happen. Make sense?


NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES UPDATE
HOME SALES CONTINUES IMPROVEMENT

Well it’s not totally turned yet, but the North Scottsdale sales market is one heckuvalot better than it’s been. Are we getting closer to ground zero? Closer, but not there yet.

Every North Scottsdale zip code community lost inventory. All communities dropped in the Absorption rate. Two communities, the 85254 and 85260 zip codes are now at a buyers market sales level with a 4 month absorption rate. What do these two areas have in common? They are the lowest priced communities in North Scottsdale.

Overall, prices are now holding steady, however for individual communiites, they can be all over the board. For example, the 85254 zip code dropped 32% of value in one year and 9% since last month. The 85255 North Scottsdale community lost only 10% in the past year, but gained 11% since last month. The 85258 zip code of North Scottsdale (McCormick Ranch, Scottsdale Ranch and Gainey Ranch) gained 12% of value since last month and lost 16% in the past year.


NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
BY ZIP Code: (All Comparisons vs. June of 2008)

Current Listings:
Sales:
Ave. Sales Price:
85254
(-4%)
(+20%)
$281, 000 (-32%)
85255
(-9%)
(+12%)
$570, 000 (-10%)
85258
(-1%)
(+17%)
$460, 000 (-16%)
85259
(-6%)
(-33%)
$678, 000 (-12%)
85260
(-5%)
(+52%)
$357, 000 (-29%)
85262
(-10%)
(+107%)
$500, 000 (-32%)
85266
(-2%)
(+53%)
$570, 000 (-21%)
Totals:
(-7%)
(+25%)
$430, 000 (-22%)

Current North Scottsdale Listing Absorption Rate for July 2009 = Eight (8) Months

Which is a…

***Drop of 2 Months Since June 2009
***Drop of 5 Months Since May 2009
***Drop of 10 Months Since April 2009
***Drop of 13 Months Since March 2009


LENDER OWNED PROPERTY SALES DROP
(Another Plus)

Phoenix metro home sales took another positive step this last month. Of the single family detached resales reported through our Multiple Listing Service (MLS) for the month of June 2009, 58.3% of the listings were noted as “Lender Owned,” – a 6.2% decline from last month! This is the second straight declining month for REO sales.

To let you know how far we’d fallen since September 2007, the number of Lender Owned sales was less than 10% of total sales, and you can see the steady climb of REO sales from that point. January saw the biggest jump in the REO sales percentage as it rose from 56% in December to 68% in January. The June percentage fell even further from the January through April time frame.

There are however 45,000+- homes currently in the foreclosure pipeline which will temper major price increases for awhile.


Real Estate VIDEO AND PICS of the Month

POSHEST PRIVATE POOL IN THE COUNTRY???
YOU JUDGE: Click here to view the video.


MIKE’S BLOG (New)

The North Scottsdale home sales market, as well as the entire Valley, is changing at the speed of light. It’s difficult to keep up with everything that’s going on, so I’ve begun blogging recently with a number of interesting and fun topics that I”l be unfolding in the months ahead including, but not limited to:

  • Stories, graphs and charts focusing on the North Scottsdale sales market
  • My son Jonathan’s recent entry into the Boise, Idaho real estate market (he’s a newbie and we’ll track his progress)
  • Buyer and Seller strategies to “Navigate and Negotiate” this amazing market (future)
  • Comments about news stories that affect our local sales market
  • FAQ’s (Frequently Asked Questions) about local real estate
  • New Listings in North Scottsdale and around the Valley
  • North Scottsdale Community of the Month

You’ll have the opportunity to reply and offer your take on issues as well. Your well thought out comments are welcome.

Just go to www.NorthScottsdale.com and click on: My Blog


Tradesman of the Month
Ted Neff of Neff Construction

The story goes that 25 years ago Ted Neff was working for a tire shop in Truckee, California. What he really wanted to do for a career was to become a builder. So Ted would engage different contractors when they came in for their tires to be changed, rotated or whatever, and he would ask them if he could go to work for them. Ted wanted to work with one contractor in particular whose name was Mike. Mike turned him down. Another contractor however named Ron, hired Ted. Ted’s new career had begun. After awhile, Mike then came to Ron and asked him if Ted could come to work for him. Ted did so.

Ted soon bought a fixer upper in Truckee and moved in and over the years remodeled it. He then bought a lot and built a “spec” home and sold it before it was finished. He continued to work for Ron and Mike and his knowledge, experience and confidence grew in his trade. He then obtained his contractor’s license and began building and remodeling homes for others. His excellent reputation grew exponentially.

Our families moved to Scottsdale in the mid 90′s escaping the long snowy winters, but Ted continued to work in the Truckee area dividing his time between here and there. He and his wife Pam, son Cliff, and daughter Anna still have a cabin near one of the highest snow load areas in the country near Donner Summit.

Key Words for Ted Neff: Perfectionist. Craftsman. Honest. Conscientious. Fair.

As a professional in the real estate industry it’s vital that I refer the finest individuals to my clients. Ted is one such. He is highly skilled in both remodel and new construction. I should also mention that Ted’s a talented home designer as well. Ted and Pam recently completed and moved into one of the Valley’s most beautiful homes. The home just happens to have hand hewed logs and beautiful stonework throughout. A little bit of the High Sierra’s in Phoenix.

Ted Neff can be reached by calling 602-882-6333.


JULY’S USEFUL WEB LINK
ADOT Road Traffic Reports ~ http://www.az511.com

The ADOT (Arizona Department of Transaportation) website may not be one of the classier looking websites around, but when it comes to current road conditions, this site is one of the best — well worth viewing. Updated in near real time, this site has personally saved me a lot of time and aggravation with all the driving that I do around the valley.

Also, you can get immediate road conditions via your phone just by dialing 511. Terrific tool.


NEW STUDY FINDS WORDS THAT SELL
AND WORDS THAT WON’T

By Ann Brenoff
Los Angeles Times
Originally published in Janaury 2007

Words matter. Wars have started over them. Civilizations have collapsed because of them. And it appears the speed with which a house sells might be determined by them.

Another finding in the study was that the plea of “must see!” was received about as enthusiastically as a dinner-time telemarketing call. Using “must see” had a statistically insignificant effect on the number of days homes took to sell.

What surprised the author most was how the buying public put style over substance. Words that denoted “curb appeal” or general attractiveness helped a property sell faster than those that spoke of “value” and “price.”

Homes described as “beautiful” moved 15 percent faster and for 5 percent more in price than the benchmark. “Good-value” homes sold for 5 percent less than average. (Click here to read the full article.)


ERRORS FOUND ON PROPERTY TAX BILLS

When the new county property tax bills get mailed out this fall, you will hear wailing in the streets, or perhaps cries of “string em up!” Many homeowners will be very upset to find that their property taxes did not go down, like the value of their home, but in fact, may have gone up. Along with that fun news, a number of cities have reported a lot of errors on the tax record, many of which will not be corrected before they are sent out. (Click for full article.)

If you haven’t signed up yet for my FREE e-newsletter, go to my website at NorthScottsdale.com and in the “How Can I Help” box under the Realty Executives logo on the right margin, click on “Monthly Newsletter,” and fill out the short application (name and e-mail address only). And of course your privacy is honored.

May 2009 eNewsletter

From a Buyer’s Market to a Seller’s Market???

YES! (For Some)

Good News: If I’m a Buyer for a Valley home, I’m ecstatic. Conditions for buying have NEVER been better. Phoenix area home prices are lowering and are, in many cases, undervalued. We’re witnessing investors coming back into the market and first time home buyers are taking advantage of the pricing, historically low interest rates, and some excellent lender opportunities.

Bad News: If I am a Seller who has a higher priced Valley home to sell, I am concerned. Conditions for selling, although slowly turning, have seldom been more trying. Though the high end inventoryis reducing, it’s still too high, resulting in average absorption rates longer than a year. Paradise Valley, which logged just 15 sales in April, has a 3 year supply of homes for sale (37 months).

For another recent market press release, see the following from ASU: http://asunews.asu.edu/20090429_business_asursi

In 90 days, the Phoenix Metro real estate market has gone from a beat up, crippled, dying on the vine, and left for dead real estate market, to a statistical seller’s market. I’m having a hard time believing it, but its true – on the macro level – the Phoenix Metro combined communities. And it’s true with numerous cities as well.

It’s not yet true (the turnaround) for the high 5: Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Fountain Hills, Carefree and Cave Creek. What do these communities have in common? They are the only Valley communities that have a median sales price over $300,000.

And there folks is your market in a nutshell. Price still drives everything! And the beat goes on ~ let’s elaborate some more:

Three months ago, the Valley single family detached home sales market (not condos or townhomes) had an average of 8 months of inventory for sale. Only 2 or 3 cities had dropped to a normal market absorption rate which we deem to be 6 months or so. Today, with the Big 5 exception, all cities have a balanced market or are firmly in a seller’s market.

The most radical turnarounds have been in Phoenix, Gilbert, Goodyear, Mesa, Peoria and Surprise. These cities have a 3-4 month supply of homes for sale. Solidly, a seller’s market!

Why? Price. For Phoenix to move into this realm it had to sell its soul to the devil. One year ago the median sales price of a home in the City of Phoenix, (not the Phoenix metro area including all cities in the Valley), was $220,000. Today the median sales price is $65,000. That my friends, is a 70% drop in value in 12 months, or almost 6% per month! Ouch.

The overall Phoenix Metro communities combined had a median sales price for April 2009 of $121,000, which was a drop of 46% from $220,000 one year ago. The reason for this price drop is that 65% of all sales were distressed or bank owned sales. These must cease.

As bad as the carnage of plummeting values have been, there is an upside, and many of us who have been in the industry for the past recessions knew that the ship would turn around, but not without great loss. And what our country has been through, and may yet go through is certainly unprecedented in our lifetime. The ship is still turning and other storms may yet alter our course, but we first had to eliminate the high inventories before there could be any return to value stabilization.

The one major storm that we’re all watching is the economy – global and national. Until the economy turns around, there will not be stabilization. In bad past recessions, it was the recession itself that forced many into bankruptcy and foreclosure. Our foreclosure catastrophes began before the recession. Many are still in deep waters and millions of homeowners owe more on their home than the home is worth (upside down).

Financing and economic confidence hold the keys to a sustained housing turnaround. The foreclosure market may still get worse before it gets better. Buyers are getting many lower end bargains. Homes that have been priced at over a million in 2005-2007 are selling for $500,000 and less! Cash buyers are the preferred choice by REO (bank owned) sellers as they can close quickly.

We have a long ways to go, but it looks like the massive hemorrhaging may be over – except for the high end market.

So what does all this mean? Are we about to reverse course and have skyrocketing prices again?

No.

We will, however, cease the relentless drop in values and gain month to month stability in the recovery, resulting in a healthier long term outlook. Is the worst behind us? I think so. I think we’ll begin to see a leveling off of prices each month. The result of that will shortly be the baseline (the bottom) for the recovery.

The High Five have a longer way to go. Prices above $500,000 still need to adjust lower, perhaps by another 10% to 20%, and larger over a million. The lower price ranges of the High Five (under $350,000) are recovering now. (Paradise Valley, Scottsdale, Carefree, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills)

The North Scottsdale Market

North Scottsdale is turning around, but at a much slower pace than the rest of the valley. Reason? The average NS median sales price stands at $438,000 versus $119,000 for the entire valley combined. Though the absorption rate drops in North Scottsdale are lagging the rest of the valley, all North Scottsdale zip codes lost inventory last month – a total of 7%. Pending Sales have also increased. Sales increased by 8.5% versus April of 2008. All the North Scottsdale sales indicators are positive, we now need to make up ground.

If you or anyone you know would like a free daily updated list of homes for sale in the Valley just have them call or e-mail me at Mike@NorthScottsdale.com.

Who’s Buying and Where are They Buying???

According to data* I obtained from the Arizona Regional MLS, 88% of all single family detached sales in the Valley were under $300,000 in April.

Based on April 2009 sales, the following represents the price breakdown of Valley sales:

Scottsdale Listed Homes

PERCENTAGE NON-TRADITIONAL SALES FOR APRIL 2009

Scottsdale Listed Homes

GREAT FIRST TIME HOME BUYER PROGRAM

*** NO DOWN PAYMENT ***
*** NO CLOSING COSTS ***
*** BELOW MARKET INTEREST ***

NOT A GIMMICK!

Major lenders, including bank of America, have set aside Billions of dollars to help first time home buyers get into homes. It’s actually a program that helps counsel buyers how to afford the home, how to budget, and avoid pitfalls that could hurt them in the future. Perfect credit is not needed. Interest rates last I saw a week ago was 4.375%. No down payment is required. No MI (mortgage insurance) is required except a $65 monthly fee, and there are no closing costs. It is amazing.

For more info, e-mail me at Mike@NorthScottsdale.com.

Is Wallpaper making a Comeback?

After years on the decorative outs, wall coverings are back in style. They’ve shed their dowdy association with teddy bears and tiny country prints and re-emerged in fresh, attention-getting forms. Click here to read the linked article and see if you agree.

*All figures have been obtained from the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service and are deemed reliable but not guaranteed.