FEATURED STORIES
- Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report (PDF)
- Forecasting the Market – A New Tool
- Valley Pending Foreclosure Numbers
- North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
- North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
- Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International
- Mike’s Tradesman of the Month – Metro Carpet Cleaning
- Real Estate Cyber Tips (Link)
- Current Mortgage Interest Rates
- A Different Christmas Poem (You Tube)
PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT
Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
Excerpted from STAT
The following online report is the new STAT format that we began using last month and which I’ll be using for future E-Newsletters. These stats, along with the data of the Cromford reports are well done and accurately report the most current numbers we have for Valley home sales. Remember, these stats are general, macro in nature – the important thing is that they may show us the trend of the market. These and Cromford are the most up-to-date stats available in our marketplace.
SALES Month over Month
Sales in November took a 2.9% upward tick to 6,786 total sales, 193 more sales than October. This reverses the recent downward trend seen in September and October. The overall upward sales trend line from January through April, which flattened May to June, took a decidedly downward tilt from July through October. As we comb the current month’s numbers, the increase this November can be seen as a glimmer of positive news.
SALES Year over Year
The November sales figure is 9.4% below the same figure in 2009. The 6,786 total sales for November surpass the 5,180 November sales average for 2001-2009. Total sales from October to November fell every November since 2001, with the exception of November 2010.
TOTAL INVENTORY
Currently there are 45,353 total residential listings, representing only a .2% increase over October. Total inventory has been on a gradual but steady upward trend since June. Between June and October the increases in total inventory each month averaged 1.82%. November’s increase of only 101 listings is good news.
SALES PRICES
The trend lines for median and average sales prices are also downward, but not as dramatically as median and average listing prices. The median sales price for November fell $5,000, or 4.2%, to $115,000. Since January when the median sales price was $124,900, the median has fallen $9,900. The average sales price also followed a see saw pattern over 2010, falling from $175,700 in January to $159,000 in November, representing a $16,700 drop. Followed closely by the September 2010 ($159,824), April 2009 ($159,681) and March, 2009 ($159,080), the November average sales price is the lowest of the decade.
FORECASTING THE MARKET–THE PENDING PRICE INDEX™
The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS, based on the pending sales data in the MLS system. It predicts the average and median sales prices ninety days into the future. The PPI’s forecast value diminishes the further into the future it goes.
The predicted median sales price for December should remain steady at $115,000, rise in January 2011 to $118,000 and fall dramatically in February to $100,000. The February’s prediction is the least reliable at this point because it is based on lower number of closings scheduled ninety days into the future.
The forecasted median figures parallel, but fall short of, the predicted figures from the November STAT: last month’s December prediction was $117,000; this month’s December prediction is $115,000. Last month’s January prediction was $120,000; this month’s prediction is $118,000. February’s forecast represents a larger drop from the prediction of an unhealthy $105,000 last month to a predicted $100,000 in this month’s STAT.
The average sales price is expected to rise in December to $162,800, drop slightly in January to $161,500 and take a precipitous $20,400 drop (12.5%) in February to $141,100. If the predictions hold true for February, it will be the lowest average sales price since 2001.
Speculation about the cause of the steep drop in February should consider buyer and seller motivations. Sales made in November and December will close most likely in January and February. Traditionally, normal Sellers, those not in distress, will not elect to place their homes on the market during the holiday period, without a compelling reason to sell, e.g., a relocation. This behavior may be keeping normal listings, and hence normal sales, out of the prediction equation.
The December PPI predictions should be influenced more heavily by the pool of investors, who unlike traditional buyers would not be motivated to remain out of the market until after the holidays. Lender owners as well have no such reservations about the holiday. Many distressed properties, which tend to have a prolonged close of escrow period, may have already been under contract before the seasonal slowing. We may see those contracts dropping in number moving forward, but not see the effects on pricing until a few months into 2011.
The ARMLS PPI debuted in March 2010 and has no empirical data surrounding predictions which straddle the close of one year and the beginning of the next. If the February forecast is unduly influenced by the fallout from the holiday season, then logically we could predict that the decline in February would right itself in March and April closings. Since January and February sales would be free of natural reluctance to mar holiday family time and festivities, we would expect that a more normal mix of transactions would account for March and April closings.
For my readers who crave more statistical junk food, I’ve included the entire report below: To read this excellent and easy-to-read PDF report click this link (Click here to view report)
VALLEY PENDING FORECLOSURES AS OF
NOVEMBER 2010: 41,032
Compared to November 2009 (50418) which is a decrease of 19%
NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT
North Scottsdale’s home sales price rose in November but dropped 7% compared to a year earlier. It took more time to sell a North Scottsdale home compared to one year ago (106 vs 91 days).
Interestingly only two North Scottsdale Zip Codes lost value in November compared with 2009. All others increased including: 85254 up 3%. 85255 up 8%. 85258 up 10%. 85260 increased 6%. 85262 saw a double digit increase of 11%.
Only 85259 (-8%), and 85266 (-6%) dropped median value.
North Scottsdale increased its listing inventory this past month by 2%, compared to last year. It now stands at an increased Monthly Absorption Rate of 10, up from 8.
NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(Listings compare this month with last month
and Sales compare November 2010 vs. November 2009)
|
Current Listings:
|
Sales:
|
Ave. Sales Price:
|
|
| 85254 |
356 (+06%)
|
49 (-06%)
|
$282,000 (+03%)
|
| 85255 |
724 (-04%)
|
70 (+01%)
|
$555,000 (+08%)
|
| 85258 |
218 (-09%)
|
23 (+35%)
|
$350,000 (+10%)
|
| 85259 |
292 (-14%)
|
29 (+06%)
|
$460,000 (-08%)
|
| 85260 |
239 (-08%)
|
32 (-24%)
|
$309,000 (+06%)
|
| 85262 |
532 (-16%)
|
41 (-18%)
|
$570,000 (+11%)
|
| 85266 |
266 (-19%)
|
19 (-19%)
|
$455,000 (-06%)
|
2010: Listings have decreased 3%. Sales Decreased by 2%.
Median Sales Price dropped 7%
Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International
As most of you know, I’ve been with Realty Executives for a long time, as in 13 years. It has been a great company to be associated with and I’ve made many friends within the company.
The reputation of the company has been excellent. We’ve been one of the top producing companies in the country and are currently ranked #11 for closed sales nationally. And just last week I received a letter from the President of the company congratulating me as being one of the top 250 agents in Realty Executives (out of 1300) for the first three quarters of this year.
So Mike, why change? Why change now?
Obviously, I can’t go into depth about all my reasons in a newsletter, but suffice to say it is a good time for a change which I’ve been sensing for awhile. HomeSmart is on the cutting edge electronically, administratively and marketing. It’s a paperless company which means that all paperwork must be digitized before I turn it in and all paperwork I receive is in an electronic format. All my listings and transactions are online.
The owner of the company, Matt Widdows, is a relatively young man with a strong vision for the company and our industry. The broker Trudy Moore, used to be the broker for Realty Executives. She is sharp, personable and well respected. It has potentially one of the best networking firms in the valley with almost 4000 agents – three times the amount we have at Realty Execs. HomeSmart Phoenix is in the top 20 companies nationally as well, though it’s been in existence for less than 10 years.
In my research, I sought out professionals from within the company and without. I also spoke with others in related fields including the mortgage and title industries. There was not one negative word that I’ve heard about this firm. All was positive.
So effective December 15th, I will be just down the hall from where I’m at now at the Desert Ridge Corporate Center, though it’s Suite 140 instead. I will also make use of our Scottsdale office located at Shea and Hayden in the NE corner. We have 7 offices valley wide and I have access to each one. If you’re thinking about stopping by to say “hi” make sure you give me a call ahead of time.
My contact #’s remain the same. 602-689-3100 is my mobile. Mike@MikeBodeen.com or Mike@NorthScottsdale.com is my e-mail.
Mike’s Trade of the Month – Metro Valley Carpet Cleaning
As most of you know, all the Trades of the Month I use are via personal experience or the valued referral of a close friend or client who has had remarkable success using them. December’s Tradesman of the Month is Bob McDaniel owner of Metro Valley Carpet Cleaning.
Karen and I have used Bob for a number of years now and is one of the professionals I refer to clients. Well, we put him up to the test of tests last week, cleaning our carpet. Now our carpet is generally not too dirty, but as some of you may recall my daughter and young granddaughters lived with us for 9 months earlier this year. Their “wing” of the house was to say the least, rough. I really didn’t believe he would be able to adequately clean the soiled areas, especially in the traffic areas of the home. In fact, Bob himself took a look at it and said that those areas were “iffy.”
Well, what can I say? He did an unbelievable job at a surprisingly reasonable price. Give Bob a call. He’s valley wide. His number is 480-232-8330.
Real Estate Cyber Tricks
This month’s cyber tips are pretty cool. How about a way to get a paper graded before you turn it in? Or, instantly turn a photo you have into a cartoon character? Or how about being able to see your resume as hiring managers do? Just click the Cybertips link below to take you to this month’s issue.
http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011
Mortgage Rates Rise, Still Under 5%
Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 12/14/2010)
30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% to 5%.
15 Year Fixed Rate: 3.75% to 4.00%
5/1 Arm: 3.25% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)
Important Consumer Mortgage Information
- The Facts Your Credit Score – A Must Read
- Buying a Home After Foreclosure
- Fannie Mae “Know Your Options” Website up and Running
Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?
Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage.
Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.
A Different Christmas Poem 12/10
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