FOR SALE: 1713 E CALLE SANTA CRUZ — Phoenix, AZ 85022

• Price: $895,000
• Beds: 5
• Baths: 4.5
• SF: 3,908

2009 CUSTOM DESIGNED and built Ted Neff home with McDowell to Superstition Mtn views. Owner/builder is a MASTER CRAFTSMAN! EVERY detail conceived w/ purpose. QUALITY CRAFTSMANSHIP ON STEROIDS! ”Universal Design” with Deluxe private 1 BR Suite on main level. Thoughtfully built for maximum enjoyment, energy efficiency & showing off! 3 levels with 5 balconies and killer 240-degree views! DELUXE CHEF’S KITCHEN with granite and stainless steel in all the right places with ample custom cabinet & pantry space. Downstrs apartment with priv. entry can be mom-in-law or used for guests. Finished workshop downstairs with seperate entrance can easily be converted to an office or 2 bedrooms. Massive load-bearing Pine ”Character” Logs and Wainscoting throughout. Mtn Vistas from a terrific pool/pat

FOR SALE: 2617 W VIA DE PEDRO MIGUEL — Phoenix, AZ 85086

• Price: $325,000
• Beds: 4
• Baths: 3
• SF: 4,110

Reduced to $325,000.00!!! A gorgeous Tramonto home on a large pie shaped interior lot that backs to the private wash. Executive style home with 4 BR’s, with walk in closets, Open kitchen has Corian counters, wall oven, microwave, and glass cook top. Formal Living and Dining rm. Breakfast area, butler bar, dry bar, family rm. den, huge rec rm, media center. Landscaped backyard with lawn, gas BBQ hookup, seating area to relax. Huge covered rear patio and separate courtyard area adjacent to a cool pebble tec pool. Large Laundry rm with cabinets, plumbed for gas. True 3 car garage. Move-in ready condition. Community pool, tennis, basketball and walking trails

• Price: $259,500
• Beds: 4
• Baths: 2.75
• SF: 2,404

REDUCED!!! REMODELED home resting on nearly 1 acre of HORSE PROPERTY with quick access to the #17 and #101! Open floor plan ideal for entertaining. Massive yard with grass, mature citrus and Pine trees. DUAL MASTER SUITES – 4 bedrooms + Office! Gigantic 50′x 12′ covered porch overlooks yard and horse stalls. Classic ceramic tile and wood throughout. Old-fashioned wood fireplace in living room adds the perfect touch! This is a short sale with one lender – Desert Schools.

Price Reduced just before the New Year! Amazing opportunity to own a remodeled home in Park Scottsdale. Beautiful stained glass door into a spacious living room with quality laminate floors, new ceiling fan and designer paint. Recent and major updating includes HVAC, Roof, Evap Cooler, Dual paned windows, and more. Open eating in kitchen with island. Downstairs you will find 2 bedrooms plus a full bathroom. Upstairs you will find 3 more bedrooms, one with a great view of Camelback Mountain. Spacious master suite is located upstairs. Downstairs bath boasts beautiful solid surface counter top and walk in shower. Large backyard with covered patio and hot tub. Large diving pool anchors the backyard. This is an amazing find, do not let it pass you by. Traditional Sale!!!

April 2011

FEATURED STORIES

• Welcome Jeremy Wilford to Team Bodeen
• Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report
• North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
• $99 SRP Energy Audits Available Now
• Virtual Home Staging – Check This out
• Real Estate Cyber Tips
• Current Mortgage Interest Rates
• About Your Mortgage Credit – Important Info

Welcome Jeremy Wilford to Team Bodeen

AKA “The Kid”

I’m excited to share with you about an individual now working alongside me who will greatly enhance my client’s real estate experience, and I trust will bring some sanity into my own life as well. If indeed that was possible.

Meet Jeremy Wilford, AKA “The Kid.” He’s an Arizona native, husband of Jennifer, graduate of ASU, and the son of two of my closest friends on this earth Greg and Terri Wilford. Jeremy has relocated back to AZ following a 5 year hitch in California where he and Jennifer got married, enjoyed the Southern California lifestyle and where Jeremy started his real estate career.

Jeremy is an Arizona resident, artist, musician, and now, Realtor. Born and raised in Scottsdale, Arizona, Jeremy’s formative years were spent avoiding cacti, UV Rays and plotting his escape from Arizona.  After graduation from Arizona State University, Jeremy began his adventure. A journey around the world as a musician landed him in Los Angeles by way of Liverpool, England in 2004. He lived, worked, and created in Southern California for the next 5 years.

Now, at the ripe age of 32, Jeremy finds himself back where he started – having come full circle returning to Scottsdale.  It was his time away from the Valley of the Sun that helped Jeremy recognize and appreciate the sheer beauty and unique appeal that has drawn so many from so far away to this desert oasis.

Already in less than two months Jeremy has made a number of sales. He enjoys working with buyers, even in our insane investor driven market. He also loves open houses and meeting new folks at the opens. He’s bringing me (kicking and screaming) into the 21^st century of social media marketing too. He’s almost 100% paperless utilizing an Apple I-Pad. What I also appreciate about my new associate is his humility which translates into a very teachable spirit.

I appreciate him and I know our clients will also.

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT

Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service

Excerpted from STAT

COMMENTARY

Market Weaknesses Linger, But a Lot of Good News to Report

(For Graphs, Charts, and Summaries scroll down to the end of the newsletter)

April’s STAT brings with it good and not-so-good news. In the plus column are the five year sales high of 9,933, the lowest total inventory in the last twelve months of 37,632, an MSI below four months for the first time in twelve months and a 22.8% reduction in foreclosures pending from a year ago. All welcome news! On the not-so-good front is the median and average pricing picture for both new list and sales prices, which continue on a disappointing downward trend. The pricing metrics are influenced by distressed properties’ (both lender owned and short sales) disproportionate percentage of total sales. And as the PPI predicts, this is not going to right itself any time soon.

The pattern of good news mixed with not-so-good is all too familiar as the Valley marches through its long recovery. The real estate market cannot correct itself in a vacuum. It is dependent on jobs and net migration into the state which must precede its return to better days. Like the seasonal rebirth that occurs in nature each spring, there are positive signs emerging that support the real estate recovery. With the release in March of Arizona’s and the Valley’s census data, we now have a much clearer picture of net migration and how it has affected the real estate market. The Phoenix Metropolitan area (Maricopa and Pinal Counties) which grew 28.9% from 2000 to 2010, grew only .017% from 2008 to 2009 and 2009 to 2010.2 From August 2009 through July 2010, net migration into the Valley was negative, ranging from a loss of 1,000 in May of 2010 to a high of 25,500 in August of 2009, or an average monthly loss of 13,958. Starting in August of 2010 the loss pattern reversed and the Valley saw positive, albeit small gains, averaging 2,769 per month.

Unemployment figures which had been under reported until the census data was released in March, now show that the unemployment rates for January and February in the Valley were 9.29 and 9.28 respectively. Yet, in February Phoenix metro saw a month over month increase of 16,700 non-farm jobs in the government and private sectors.

More promising are recent announcements which indicate that jobs are coming and soon. Jobs will entice positive net migration, put many back to work and will fuel the Valley’s real estate recovery. On March 29th Mayor Gordon announced that Phoenix will become the home to the world’s largest health care data center, Institute for Advanced Health, expected to attract thousands of biomedical jobs to the Valley.5 Yulex will be expanding its rubber production capabilities with a new facility in Chandler which will create 100 full time jobs and 500 part time, and grow to 300 full time in five years.6 First Solar’s new plant on the General Motors Proving Grounds site, is expected to bring 600 new jobs and potentially hundreds more if it entices its products’ supply chain to relocate here. It expects to start construction in       Q2 and be completed by 2012. Gestamp Renewables plans to build a steel facility in Surprise which will employ 50 in the first phase, bring in 100 construction jobs and eventually employ 300 at the factory.7 What is clear is the Valley’s recovery has started and the factors that will insure its continuance seem full of promise.

SALES Month over Month

The good news for March is its sales figure of 9,933, which is the highest monthly sales total in the previous sixty-six months. March figure is also the 5th highest sales record since 2001. This represents a 38.8% gain over February total sales and completes the upward pattern for the quarter, typical of every Q1 since ARMLS began keeping records in 2001. While the month over month gains since January are not unusual, March’s claim to the highest sales figure in five years is. Clearly Buyers are taking advantage of the phenomenal affordability of Valley housing.

SALES Year over Year

March’s 9,933 represents a 10.7% year over year gain, complementing the March over February gains of 2008 to 2009 (77.9%) and 2009 to 2010 (17.5%). Higher sales totals help deplete the market’s over supply of homes, inching it towards a more balanced supply.

NEW INVENTORY

New Listings added to the market increased 16.7% over February (+1,765) to 12,312. This represents only 1% increase over the previous 12 month new listing average of 12,152.

TOTAL INVENTORY

Total inventory which remained relatively flat in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2010, began a down-ward trend in late Q4 which continued into March. March inventory declined 7.5% from February to a total of 37,632 units. This figure is the lowest total inventory in the last twenty three months. This type of decline in total inventory chips away at the Valley’s oversupply which must be reduced in any plausible recovery scenario.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)

More good news comes with the decline in the MSI to 3.79 months, representing a significant 33% drop and the lowest MSI in the past 12 months. MSI under 4 months is categorized as a Seller’s market, and this is the first time this has occurred in the last twelve months. The MSI metric when calculated for the entire market is merely a barometer of overall market health. It is not relevant to small market niches which have their own sup-ply and demand and thus their own MSI. Lower MSI is a price driver, which is sorely needed in the Valley’s recovery. An MSI under four months for a single month will not have huge impact, but if this is the start of a trend rather than a blip, we might expect some positive pricing pressure later in the year.

NEW LIST PRICES

Median and average new list prices have been on parallel declining trends over the last twenty-four months. Median new list price declined 3.2% in March to $120,000 and the average new list price declined 1.1% from February to $201,100. While the net losses from February are not steep, the drops from the all time highs of the past decade are far more painful. Median new list price fell in March to $120,000 from the decade high in February 2006 of $303,900, a 61% decline in value. Similarly, the average new list price of $201,100 in March fell from a decade high of $421,950 in January 2007, a 52% decline in value.

SALES PRICES

Sales prices follow a similar long term downward trending path forged by new list prices. In March median sales prices remained steady hovering around $110,000, hardly deviating from the downward trajectory established over the previous twelve months. Average sales prices increased slightly (1.4%) from February, settling at almost the same level as January at $157,800. The overall decline in just the last twelve months from a high median of $130,000 in May 2010 and a high average of $179,900 in June of 2010 is not very good news. Pricing is in the doldrums, and while a trailing indicator, still remains the bane of the Valley’s recovery.

THE ARMLS PENDING PRICE INDEX™

The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS. It forecasts the aver-age and median sales prices ninety days into the future based on the pending sales in the MLS system. Its accuracy diminishes the further into the future it goes, as new pendings are constantly added to the system. Last month the PPI predicted $160,000 as March’s average sales price, and the actual was $157,800, only 1.25% off the mark. The median sales price predictor last month was $114,000 and the actual came in at $110,000, 3.5% lower. Declines in the median and average prices reflect larger numbers of lower end closed properties which exert negative pressure on pricing.

PPI predictions for the next ninety days indicate the median will rise to $113,000 in April, drop $10,000 to $103,000 in May and rise $6,000 to $109,000 in June. The average sales price predictions follow a similar up-down-up pattern. PPI predicts the average sales price to rise to $163,000 in April, drop $13,000 to $150,000 in May and then rise slightly to $152,000 in June. While the declines in pricing signal good news for Buyers who want to take advantage of the lowest pricing of the decade, they are unwelcome news for Sellers who endure the ill effects on their equity wrought by a market oversupply unduly influenced by distressed properties.

To View this entire report in a PDF click on the link below or cut and paste into yourbrowser.

http://www.armls.com/Libraries/STAT_and_PPI_2011/STAT-Apr-2011.sflb.ashx

March Pending Foreclosures decrease again

Foreclosures pending continue on the downward trend established over the last twelve months, which in April 2010 was 47,836 and in March was 37,037, 22.58% lower than a year ago. Lender owned sales are at the root of declining prices, so declines in the foreclosures pending which feed the lender owned sales is good news. Recovery is going to be a slow and painful process and eliminating the disproportionate influence of foreclosures is a must.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT

By Zip Code

85254:

Active Listings in the 85254 community dropped from 283 on March 1^st to 263 this month.

This dropped from 390 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 93 a year ago to 106 this month.

Sales increased from 62 to 74 from February to March. Stayed the same compared to one year ago.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 53% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $262,500

Average Sales Price March 2010: $290,000

85255:

Active Listings in the 85255 community dropped from 717 on March 1^st to 705 this month.

This dropped from 778 one year ago.

Pending Listings have decreased from 123 a year ago to 101 this month.

Sales decreased from 94 to 82 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 39% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $500,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $467,000

85258:

Active Listings in the 85258 community dropped from 210 on March 1^st to 198 this month.

This dropped from 252 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 41 a month ago to 42 this month.

Sales increased from 22 to 29 compared with a year ago.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 38% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $518,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $408,000

85259:

Active Listings in the 85259 community rose slightly from 273 on March 1^st to 278 this month.

This dropped from 328 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 52 a month ago to 53 this month.

Sales increased from 38 to 40 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 35% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $596,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $560,000

85260:

Active Listings in the 85260 community increased from 273 on March 1^st to 278 this month.

This dropped from 328 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 52 a year ago to 53 this month.

Sales increased from 28 to 40 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 64% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $305,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $370,000

85262:

Active Listings in the 85262 community dropped from 526 on March 1^st to 514 this month.

This dropped from 625 one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased from 65 a month ago to 75 this month.

Sales increased from 50 to 61 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 51% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $675,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $427,000

85266:

Active Listings in the 85266 community dropped from 241 on March 1^st to 238 this month.

This was the same as one year ago.

Pending Listings have increased/decreased from 49 a year ago to 39 this month.

Sales increased from 28 to 38 from February to March.

Distressed Sales (Short Sales and Lender owned) accounted for 34% of the market.

Average Sales Price March 2011: $540,000

Average Sales Price March 2010: $540,000

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

Make Your Photos Look Great. http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Here’s the choice. If you are a graphics professional you can go out and spend lots of bucks for image editing tools. On the other hand if your livelihood doesn’t depend on top of the line software and you just want to occasionally crop, edit and touch up a photo and other graphics, then these folks can help.

This “cloud based” program will do all of the usual editing you’ll need. You can create a new image, open and edit an image from your computer or the web and create an image library – all without having to install any software.

And the nice part is – it’s on the house. For this and other great tricks and tips go to:

SRP unveils Home Performance with ENERGY STAR® program

For only $99, customers can find ways to give their home a tune-up

SRP launched the new Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program this week, a whole-house approach to energy efficiency that identifies specific actions customers can take to reduce household energy costs.

For the discounted price of $99, SRP’s comprehensive assessment uncovers barriers to a home’s energy efficiency. This two- to three-hour assessment, which typically costs about $500, will be conducted by an SRP-approved Home Performance contractor. The assessment includes:

• Blower door test and pressure diagnostics
• Duct testing
• Combustion safety testing
• HVAC assessment
• Insulation inspection
• Window inspection
• Lighting, appliance and hot-water inspection

“Most people aren’t aware that air leaks represent a sizeable portion of home air-conditioning and heating costs,” said Debbie Kimberly, SRP’s manager of Energy Efficiency & Policy Analysis. “Our new home assessment examines those issues, checks for proper installation of insulation and many other factors that can make homes quieter and more comfortable.”

Within 10 business days of the assessment, contractors will provide a report that highlights all the energy-saving opportunities and lets the customer decide which, if any, improvements to make. SRP also can help customers arrange and pay for enhancements through rebates for shade screens, duct repairs, insulation, air sealing and new high-efficiency air-conditioning systems. Through Dec. 31, 2010, some measures may even qualify for federal tax credits.

Participants who learn how to improve energy efficiency in the home also will receive an energy-efficiency kit with 10 compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs), a low-flow showerhead and three low-flow faucet aerators that will be installed during the assessment, if feasible.

The SRP Home Performance with ENERGY STAR Program is open to current SRP residential electric customers who own an existing single-family home; new construction is ineligible. The assessment must be performed on or before April 30, 2011.

To learn more about this program, visit www.savewithsrp.com or call (602) 889-2656.

I am writing to recommend a home energy audit service provided by the AZ Solar Wave & Energy Company.  This company is owned by my nephew, Chris Owens, who has been in the construction and solar energy business for the past twelve years.  Chris has a wonderful reputation in the industry, one of integrity and dependability. I have attached a flyer that gives a quick summary and their contact info. SRP and APS have started this program and are subsidizing the cost of the audit so the home owner pays just $99 to have them come out and perform the audit. They are BPI certified (Building Performance Institute) and approved by APS and SRP.

Robb and Stucky to Close its Doors

Upscale furniture retailer Robb & Stucky, a top player in the Valley’s interior design arena for 20 years, will liquidate its inventory and close, according to a plan approved Tuesday by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Tampa, Fla.

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/2011/03/08/20110308arizona-robb-stucky-close-liquidate.html#ixzz1KrWDDbmA

Valley Mortgage Rates Improve

Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 4/25/2011)

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% (5.75% Jumbo)

5/1 Arm: 3.75% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)

4.0% Jumbo Financing (7/1 Arm – with 25% Down)

15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.00%

Important Consumer Mortgage Information

The Facts Your Credit Score – A Must Read

http://www.aaronline.com/AZR/2010/June/the-facts-about-credit-scores.aspx

Buying a Home After Foreclosure

http://www.aaronline.com/AZR/2010/August/buying-a-home-after-a-foreclosure.aspx

Fannie Mae “Know Your Options” Website up and Running

http://www.knowyouroptions.com/

Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage. Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs,

For one, sales numbered 7073 for just the single family detached (SFD) market. These are strong numbers. The median sales price for SFD was $120,000. Um, not great, still dropping. Time on the market dropped a little, and fully 1/3 of listings sell within 30 days. Well over half sell within 60 days.

But the one December sales stat which jumped out at me was how these 7073 sales were financed. With current mortgage interest rates bumping along at historically low numbers — under 5% for 30 year fixed rates, one would think government or conventional loans would win the day. But they don’t. Instead, CASH sales accounted for 42% of the market. Let me repeat, cash accounted for 42% of our sales market.

I believe it’s safe to say that this investor driven market is keeping us on life support, not the historically low rates.

Next in line wasn’t even FHA financing that can be had for as little as 3.5% down, but conventional (i.e., usually with 20% cash down payments or more) which took 27% of the market. FHA followed in 3rd place with 24% of the market. VA with 4%. And everything else accounted for 3%.

Ok, so what does this tell us? My dear Watson, it tells us that investors are dominating the market. Totally. I believe it’s safe to say that this investor driven market is keeping us on life support, not the historically low rates.

• Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International
• Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report (PDF)
• ARMLS Pending Price Index
• Valley Pending Foreclosure Numbers
• North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
• North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
• Experience Scottsdale Events Coming Up
• 10 tips to Staging Your House for Sale
• Real Estate Cyber Tips (Link)
• Current Mortgage Interest Rates
• About Your Mortgage Credit – Important Info

Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International

As most of you know, I’ve been with Realty Executives for a long time, as in 13 years. It’s been a great company to be associated with and I’ve made many friends within the company.

Realty Executives has been one of the top producing companies in the country and is ranked #11 for closed sales nationally. And just last month I received a letter from the new President of the company congratulating me as being one of the top 250 agents in Realty Executives – out of 1300.

So Mike, why change? Why change now?

Obviously, I can’t go into depth about all my reasons in this newsletter, but suffice to say it is a good time for a change which I’ve been sensing for awhile. HomeSmart is on the cutting edge electronically, and with great efficiency. It’s a paperless company which means that all paperwork must be digitized before I turn it in and all paperwork I receive is in an electronic format. All my listings and transactions are online. We understand the need to be relevant technologically, while being able to provide full property exposure. And by the way, HomeSmart is the 19th top producing firm by sales sides in the country and 26th in the country by dollar volume.

The owner of the company, Matt Widdows, is a relatively young man with a strong vision for the company and our industry. The broker Trudy Moore used to be the broker for Realty Executives. She is sharp, personable and well respected. It has potentially one of the most dynamic networking firms in the valley with almost 4000 agents – three times the amount we have at Realty Execs.

In my research, I sought out professionals from within the company and without. I also spoke with others in related fields including the mortgage and title industries. There has not been one negative word that I’ve heard about HomeSmart to date.

So effective this past December 15th, I relocated down the hall from where I’m at now at the Desert Ridge Corporate Center, though it’s Suite 140 instead. I will also make use of our Scottsdale office located at the NE corner of Shea and Hayden. We have 9 offices valley wide and I have 24/7 access to each one. If you’re thinking about stopping by to say “hi” just give a call ahead of time.

My contact #’s remain the same. 602-689-3100 is my mobile. Mike@MikeBodeen.com or Mike@NorthScottsdale.com is my e-mail.

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT
Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
Excerpted from STAT

The following online report is the new STAT format that we began using last month and which I’ll be using for future E-Newsletters. These stats, along with the data of the Cromford reports are well done and accurately report the most current numbers we have for Valley home sales. Remember, these stats are macro in nature but they can show us market trends.

SALES Month over Month

Monthly Sales in December were 8,401, a 23.8% increase over November’s 6,786. This complements an upward sales trend for the whole fourth quarter. The highest sales for 2010 of 9,280 occurred in June.

This month over month gain coupled with the fourth quarter trend demonstrates a metric clearly moving in the right direction, after a pattern for 2010 characterized by a “one step forward and two steps back” phenomenon. The December Sales figure ends the year as a 45.12% increase compared to the January figure (5,789) at the start of the year.

SALES Year over Year

December’s 8,401 Sales total represents a 9.7% increase over 2009′s December Sales figure of 7,657. In addition, it is the second largest November to December monthly gain (23.8%) of the decade, just below the November to December gain (24.98%) in 2008. ARMLS

NEW INVENTORY

December New Inventory (9,443) declined 13.9% or 1,526 listings from November’s 10,969. This month’s New Inventory figure follows a steady decline started in September. This is in line with a pattern of November to December declines in New Inventory experienced every December since 2001. New Inventory added to the market in 2010 was 148,968, 1.17% increase over the same figure for 2009, but well below the figures for 2006, 2007 and 2008 (173,363, 165,615, and 162,181 respectively). New Inventory added to the Total Inventory each month is an important factor in the supply and demand balance, as greater supplies support a Buyer’s market and exert downward pressure on pricing.

TOTAL INVENTORY

Total Inventory declined 2,890 listings in December to 42,463, a 6.37% decline from November. Total inventory remained flat during 2010 with an average of 43,088 per month.

MONTHS SUPPLY OF INVENTORY (MSI)

MSI for December declined to 5.05, representing the first drop below 6 months since June, and a positive step toward a balanced market. A Seller’s market is typically defined as a months supply of inventory in the 4-5 month range, while a Buyer’s market is described as a 6 month or greater supply. While MSI is a barometer of overall market health, it may not represent an accurate picture of inventory supply in specific market niches. The December decline from 6.68 to 5.05 months is a drop of 1.63 months or 24.4%. While this is a very positive metric, a quick glance at the historic new listing and sold data shows that new listings rise significantly from December to January each year, and sales significantly fall from December to January each year. Thus next month’s inventory rise coupled with fewer sales, could cause the MSI to rise again.

NEW LIST PRICES

Both the median and average List Prices added to the market continued downward in December. Median List Price dropped 3.2% to $118,000 from November’s $121,900. Likewise the average List Price declined 7.5% to $191,000 from November’s $206,400.

SALES PRICES

December’s Median Sales Price was $110,200, a 4.2% decline from November, and a 12.9% decline from December 2009. The median value represents the midpoint in a market where there are as many sales above that value as below. Great housing affordability in the Valley was fueled by the declining median price trend line in 2010. The average Sales Price for December rose $1,400 to $160,400, a .9% gain over November, but 9.7% decrease from December 2009. ARMLS

THE PENDING PRICE INDEX™

The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS which forecasts Median and Average Sales Prices for the coming three months based on the pending sales data in MLS.

The PPI’s predictive accuracy naturally declines the further into the future it goes, as the number of transactions in the forecast lessens. The actual Median Sales Price for December was $110,200, which was 4.17% below the December figure predicted in November. The Average Sales Price for December was $160,400, or 1.47% below the December Average predicted in November. While the actual numbers may deviate from predicted values, the forecast value for the direction of market pricing remains true.

The three month prediction for Median Sales Price for January, February and March are $115,000, $112,000 and $110,000 respectively, indicating continuing downward pricing pressures well into the first quarter. Likewise, Average Sales Price predictions follow a similar downward forecast for January, February and March of $159,400, $158,200, and $145,800 respectively.

Downward pricing pressure in the Valley is influenced by the large, steady supply of homes (42,463) and the disproportionate percentage (69.6%) of Distressed Sales relative to the Total Sales.

Click here to view this entire report in a PDF

DECEMBER PENDING FORECLOSURES UNCHANGED

The Valley’s Pending foreclosure market remained virtually the same as last month. The number of Pending foreclosures (41,057) decreased 19% compared to December 2009 (50444). This statistic is one of the more important keys to understand when the reversal of our market begins to take shape.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT

Whereas much of the Valley sales market remains stuck in miry clay, North Scottsdale showed a much more upbeat turn in its market conditions from its December numbers.

North Scottsdale’s home sales rose 13% in December compared to a year earlier. It took 5 less days to sell a North Scottsdale home compared to one year ago (161 vs 166 days).

Good news also is the drop in inventory across the board. Only 85266 zip code didn’t lose inventory, but remained the same. North Scottsdale now stands at a Monthly Absorption Rate of 6.5, down from 10. That is a HUGE and welcome drop. I expect that will move up with February’s reporting as it historically does.

North Scottsdale’s median price dropped to $400,000 compared with $460,000 for December of 2009, but the median price per square foot (PPS) dropped only 3%. The PPS is a more accurate way of determining appreciation.

All zip codes in North Scottsdale increased median value, except 85259 (-8%), and 85266 (-6%). See Table Summary below.

Sales increased from 301 a year earlier to 340 this December, which is a 13% gain.

Considering everything, I’ll take this upbeat North Scottsdale report in a heart beat.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(Listings compare this month with last month
and Sales compare December 2010 vs. December 2009)

Bored? In Scottsdale? In Winter? Check your pulse then these upcoming events…

In Scottsdale, January rings in more than an exciting New Year – it also ushers in a special event season that’s chock-full of art festivals, professional sports competitions, collector car auctions and more. Highlights of the coming season include the Scottsdale Celebration of Fine Art(Jan. 15 – March 27), Barrett-Jackson Collector Car Auction (Jan. 17-23), Waste Management Phoenix Open (Jan.31 – Feb. 6), and Cactus League Spring Training (Feb. 25 – March 26), starring the 2010 World Champion San Francisco Giants at Scottsdale Stadium and the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks in their new headquarters at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick. For a Full lineup of events Control + Click the link below

Upcoming Scottsdale Winter Events – Control + Click here

10 Tips to Staging Your House for Sale

Want to sell your home? Get out the bucket, mop and Mr. Clean. The key to making a positive first impression is simple, said Sandra Rinomato, host of HGTV’s popular “Property Virgins” show.

“Get it clean, clean, clean,” said Rinomato. “If your house isn’t clean, it instantly sends up negative thoughts that the home is not well maintained. If your house is spotless, you’re ahead of the game,” she said.

But don’t stop there, advised Rinomato. To increase your chances of making a sale, “stage” the house to make it as attractive as possible. Until recently, “Staging meant pulling out all the stops-setting the dining table with your best china and crystal, arranging flowers, lighting candles,” she said. “Now we take the minimalist approach. Basically, you want to strip the house to its bare essentials, depersonalize it so potential buyers can superimpose themselves and their lifestyle on the house.”

Rinomato offered the following tips for staging a home:

1. Visit model homes and examine shelter magazines for inexpensive decorating ideas. Always keep in mind you are not decorating for yourself but for the general public.

2. Start with the outside. Give the house a fresh coat of paint, add shiny hardware to the front door and plant a few flowers to send a subliminal message the house is loved and well cared for.

3. Declutter every room to make it look larger. Get rid of family pictures, trophies and knickknacks. Closets and drawers should be no more than 30% full.

4. Invest in eco-friendly but bright lights. Open the drapes or remove them completely. “Light, bright rooms give the impression this is a happy place-and everyone wants to move into a happy place,” said Rinomato.

5. Feature only a few pieces of furniture with mainstream appeal. Pull pieces away from walls to make rooms look bigger.

6. Make sure a room’s primary use is obvious. A bedroom should look like a bedroom, not an office, hobby center or gym.

7. Bedrooms and kitchens are difficult to stage because they are in daily use, but make the effort. Clear everything off the counters and nightstands, roll up the rugs and hide the laundry hamper. Buff the cabinets with car wax and clean under the sinks. Invest in pristine white bed linens and towels.

8. Minimize the “pet effect.” Remove food bowls and litter boxes to the utility room. Deodorize thoroughly.

9. Organize the utility room and garage. Hang up the bicycles, roll up the hose. Renting a storage locker is worth the cost if it helps you sell faster and for a higher price.

10. Once your house is staged, invite your friends or Realtor over and walk them through to get an objective opinion.

Compliments of RISMEDIA March 19th 2010

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

In a recent Consumer Reports survey about everyday annoyances, with 10 being “annoys you tremendously,” respondents rated the failure to get a human being on a customer service line an 8.6, second only to hidden fees (8.9) and more irritating than spam e-mail (7.5) and inaccurate meteorologists (4.3), which was at the bottom of the list. Check out a free service that puts you in control of your time on this issue, plus other great cyber tricks and tips at: http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Valley Mortgage Rates Improve

Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 1/15/2011)

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% (5.75% Jumbo)

5/1 Arm: 3.75% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)

4.0% Jumbo Financing (7/1 Arm – with 25% Down)

15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.00%

Important Consumer Mortgage Information

• The Facts Your Credit Score – A Must Read
• Buying a Home After Foreclosure
• Fannie Mae “Know Your Options” Website up and Running

Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage. Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs

http://www.armls.com/Libraries/STAT/STAT_December_2010.sflb.ashx   

   According to ARMLS, the PPI is a predictive tool unique to our MLS, based on “Pending sales” that have not yet closed escrow.  “The predicted median price  for December should remain steady at $115,000, rise in January 2011 to $118,000 and fall dramatically to $100,000 in February.  The February’s prediction is least reliable at this point because it is based on lower number of closings scheduled ninety days into the future,” states the report.

   Personally, I’m not putting a lot of faith into the index for at least one month and probably longer. I’d like to see what December sales will bring about as those sales will most likely close in February unless they’re short sales. During December and January we’ll also see the valley swell with new winter visitors, many of whom we think will have brought their checkbooks from the chilly midwest.

   Well, you can read the report for yourselves, but I give you this caveat, the market is actually showing a number of positive signs. All real estate is local, so don’t interpret broad statistics to what’s actually happening in your community.  A number of  communities are doing pretty well, and we trust are leading the pack back.

   Questions? Call Mike Bodeen, Associate Broker at 602-689-3100.

Mike is a Licensed Broker and a:

CRS – Certified Residential Specialist;  ABR – Accredited Buyer Representative; CDPE – Certified Distressed Property Expert; SFR – Short Sale Foreclosure Resource; SRES – Senior Real Estate Specialist

After all, the market seemed to have bottomed out in November 2009. Indeed at that time the market was at a 9 year low – at least.
Now however, the market, after going up for 8 months is decreasing again. That is a “double dip.”
That is the bad news.
Today, Betty Beard – the same Betty Beard listed above, of the same AZ Republic listed above, reported:

Although it may not feel like it to many people, the economy is in the midst of a solid rebound that will gain strength over the coming years, a panel of economists said Wednesday.

The recovery, though, will be slow, more like the pace of a tortoise than a hare, said Joel Naroff, a Philadelphia economist who has won a number of awards for his accurate forecasts. The tortoise, though, is nearing the finish line.

“Better times are ahead. I truly believe this is a recovery, that this is an economic change that you can count on,” he told more than 1,000 people attending the 47th annual economic-forecast luncheon Wednesday sponsored by Arizona State University’s W.P. Carey School of Business and JPMorgan Chase bank. The event was held at the Phoenix Convention Center. Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/12/02/20101202biz-forecast1202.html

And that, is the good news. Improvement in our local economy and the ridding of the tens of thousands of foreclosures would change this market in a heartbeat.
The problem is that we don’t seem to be anywhere near the 2nd part of that equation. Scottsdale economist Elliott Pollack estimates that there are 50,000 to 70,000 excess single-family homes in metro Phoenix alone and that it will take at least four more years for housing supply to equal demand.

He said about 51 percent of homes in the state have negative equity, meaning their current values are less than what is owed on them. Loan modifications are mostly failing, and foreclosures remain high, although they peaked a year ago.

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2010/12/02/20101202biz-forecast1202.html#ixzz1703HZR6r

• Phoenix Metro Home Sales Report (PDF)
• Forecasting the Market – A New Tool
• Valley Pending Foreclosure Numbers
• North Scottsdale Home Sales Report
• North Scottsdale Home Sales by Zip Code
• Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International
• Mike’s Tradesman of the Month – Metro Carpet Cleaning
• Real Estate Cyber Tips (Link)
• Current Mortgage Interest Rates
• A Different Christmas Poem (You Tube)

PHOENIX METRO HOME SALES REPORT

Courtesy of the Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service
Excerpted from STAT

The following online report is the new STAT format that we began using last month and which I’ll be using for future E-Newsletters. These stats, along with the data of the Cromford reports are well done and accurately report the most current numbers we have for Valley home sales. Remember, these stats are general, macro in nature – the important thing is that they may show us the trend of the market. These and Cromford are the most up-to-date stats available in our marketplace.

SALES Month over Month

Sales in November took a 2.9% upward tick to 6,786 total sales, 193 more sales than October. This reverses the recent downward trend seen in September and October. The overall upward sales trend line from January through April, which flattened May to June, took a decidedly downward tilt from July through October. As we comb the current month’s numbers, the increase this November can be seen as a glimmer of positive news.

SALES Year over Year

The November sales figure is 9.4% below the same figure in 2009. The 6,786 total sales for November surpass the 5,180 November sales average for 2001-2009. Total sales from October to November fell every November since 2001, with the exception of November 2010.

TOTAL INVENTORY

Currently there are 45,353 total residential listings, representing only a .2% increase over October. Total inventory has been on a gradual but steady upward trend since June. Between June and October the increases in total inventory each month averaged 1.82%. November’s increase of only 101 listings is good news.

SALES PRICES

The trend lines for median and average sales prices are also downward, but not as dramatically as median and average listing prices. The median sales price for November fell $5,000, or 4.2%, to $115,000. Since January when the median sales price was $124,900, the median has fallen $9,900. The average sales price also followed a see saw pattern over 2010, falling from $175,700 in January to $159,000 in November, representing a $16,700 drop. Followed closely by the September 2010 ($159,824), April 2009 ($159,681) and March, 2009 ($159,080), the November average sales price is the lowest of the decade.

FORECASTING THE MARKET–THE PENDING PRICE INDEX™

The ARMLS Pending Price Index is a predictive tool unique to ARMLS, based on the pending sales data in the MLS system. It predicts the average and median sales prices ninety days into the future. The PPI’s forecast value diminishes the further into the future it goes.

The predicted median sales price for December should remain steady at $115,000, rise in January 2011 to $118,000 and fall dramatically in February to $100,000. The February’s prediction is the least reliable at this point because it is based on lower number of closings scheduled ninety days into the future.

The forecasted median figures parallel, but fall short of, the predicted figures from the November STAT: last month’s December prediction was $117,000; this month’s December prediction is $115,000. Last month’s January prediction was $120,000; this month’s prediction is $118,000. February’s forecast represents a larger drop from the prediction of an unhealthy $105,000 last month to a predicted $100,000 in this month’s STAT.

The average sales price is expected to rise in December to $162,800, drop slightly in January to $161,500 and take a precipitous $20,400 drop (12.5%) in February to $141,100. If the predictions hold true for February, it will be the lowest average sales price since 2001.

Speculation about the cause of the steep drop in February should consider buyer and seller motivations. Sales made in November and December will close most likely in January and February. Traditionally, normal Sellers, those not in distress, will not elect to place their homes on the market during the holiday period, without a compelling reason to sell, e.g., a relocation. This behavior may be keeping normal listings, and hence normal sales, out of the prediction equation.

The December PPI predictions should be influenced more heavily by the pool of investors, who unlike traditional buyers would not be motivated to remain out of the market until after the holidays. Lender owners as well have no such reservations about the holiday. Many distressed properties, which tend to have a prolonged close of escrow period, may have already been under contract before the seasonal slowing. We may see those contracts dropping in number moving forward, but not see the effects on pricing until a few months into 2011.

The ARMLS PPI debuted in March 2010 and has no empirical data surrounding predictions which straddle the close of one year and the beginning of the next. If the February forecast is unduly influenced by the fallout from the holiday season, then logically we could predict that the decline in February would right itself in March and April closings. Since January and February sales would be free of natural reluctance to mar holiday family time and festivities, we would expect that a more normal mix of transactions would account for March and April closings.

For my readers who crave more statistical junk food, I’ve included the entire report below: To read this excellent and easy-to-read PDF report click this link (Click here to view report)

VALLEY PENDING FORECLOSURES AS OF
NOVEMBER 2010: 41,032

Compared to November 2009 (50418) which is a decrease of 19%

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES REPORT

North Scottsdale’s home sales price rose in November but dropped 7% compared to a year earlier. It took more time to sell a North Scottsdale home compared to one year ago (106 vs 91 days).

Interestingly only two North Scottsdale Zip Codes lost value in November compared with 2009. All others increased including: 85254 up 3%. 85255 up 8%. 85258 up 10%. 85260 increased 6%. 85262 saw a double digit increase of 11%.

Only 85259 (-8%), and 85266 (-6%) dropped median value.

North Scottsdale increased its listing inventory this past month by 2%, compared to last year. It now stands at an increased Monthly Absorption Rate of 10, up from 8.

NORTH SCOTTSDALE SALES SUMMARY
(Listings compare this month with last month
and Sales compare November 2010 vs. November 2009)

2010: Listings have decreased 3%. Sales Decreased by 2%.
Median Sales Price dropped 7%

Mike Bodeen Joins HomeSmart International

As most of you know, I’ve been with Realty Executives for a long time, as in 13 years. It has been a great company to be associated with and I’ve made many friends within the company.

The reputation of the company has been excellent. We’ve been one of the top producing companies in the country and are currently ranked #11 for closed sales nationally. And just last week I received a letter from the President of the company congratulating me as being one of the top 250 agents in Realty Executives (out of 1300) for the first three quarters of this year.

So Mike, why change? Why change now?

Obviously, I can’t go into depth about all my reasons in a newsletter, but suffice to say it is a good time for a change which I’ve been sensing for awhile. HomeSmart is on the cutting edge electronically, administratively and marketing. It’s a paperless company which means that all paperwork must be digitized before I turn it in and all paperwork I receive is in an electronic format. All my listings and transactions are online.

The owner of the company, Matt Widdows, is a relatively young man with a strong vision for the company and our industry. The broker Trudy Moore, used to be the broker for Realty Executives. She is sharp, personable and well respected. It has potentially one of the best networking firms in the valley with almost 4000 agents – three times the amount we have at Realty Execs. HomeSmart Phoenix is in the top 20 companies nationally as well, though it’s been in existence for less than 10 years.

In my research, I sought out professionals from within the company and without. I also spoke with others in related fields including the mortgage and title industries. There was not one negative word that I’ve heard about this firm. All was positive.

So effective December 15th, I will be just down the hall from where I’m at now at the Desert Ridge Corporate Center, though it’s Suite 140 instead. I will also make use of our Scottsdale office located at Shea and Hayden in the NE corner. We have 7 offices valley wide and I have access to each one. If you’re thinking about stopping by to say “hi” make sure you give me a call ahead of time.

My contact #’s remain the same. 602-689-3100 is my mobile. Mike@MikeBodeen.com or Mike@NorthScottsdale.com is my e-mail.

Mike’s Trade of the Month – Metro Valley Carpet Cleaning

As most of you know, all the Trades of the Month I use are via personal experience or the valued referral of a close friend or client who has had remarkable success using them. December’s Tradesman of the Month is Bob McDaniel owner of Metro Valley Carpet Cleaning.

Karen and I have used Bob for a number of years now and is one of the professionals I refer to clients. Well, we put him up to the test of tests last week, cleaning our carpet. Now our carpet is generally not too dirty, but as some of you may recall my daughter and young granddaughters lived with us for 9 months earlier this year. Their “wing” of the house was to say the least, rough. I really didn’t believe he would be able to adequately clean the soiled areas, especially in the traffic areas of the home. In fact, Bob himself took a look at it and said that those areas were “iffy.”

Well, what can I say? He did an unbelievable job at a surprisingly reasonable price. Give Bob a call. He’s valley wide. His number is 480-232-8330.

Real Estate Cyber Tricks

This month’s cyber tips are pretty cool. How about a way to get a paper graded before you turn it in? Or, instantly turn a photo you have into a cartoon character? Or how about being able to see your resume as hiring managers do? Just click the Cybertips link below to take you to this month’s issue.

http://www.recyber.com/cybertips/r6011

Mortgage Rates Rise, Still Under 5%
Currently for Phoenix, Arizona (as of 12/14/2010)

30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.75% to 5%.
15 Year Fixed Rate: 3.75% to 4.00%
5/1 Arm: 3.25% (Fixed for 5 Years than adjusts)

Important Consumer Mortgage Information

• The Facts Your Credit Score – A Must Read
• Buying a Home After Foreclosure
• Fannie Mae “Know Your Options” Website up and Running

Know ANYONE who is Struggling with their Mortgage?

Do you know anyone who is struggling with their mortgage and needs counsel – without cost or obligation? Please give them my name and number. As a holder of the CDPE (Certified Distressed Property Expert) designation, the SFR (Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource) Certification and everyday practical knowledge of handling them, I can help. All interviews are confidential. There are strong consequences if folks just walk away from their mortgage.

Call Mike Bodeen at 602-689-3100 for more info.

A Different Christmas Poem 12/10

For Help with all your Real Estate Needs